Rebounded for a week, then fell again... What is the identity of the $280 million sell-off bomb that crippled Bitcoin?

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Despite the recent week-long price recovery, a diagnosis has emerged that Bitcoin (BTC) is still unable to shake off the stagnant bearish market sentiment, raising investor anxiety. This attempted rebound has also been hindered by strong sell-off pressure from long-term holders, coupled with the cold response from institutional investors, leading to an analysis that the market structure remains vulnerable and can easily collapse even due to minor external negative factors.

According to FXStreet, an investment media outlet, on July 9 (local time), on-chain analytics firm Glassnode stated that Bitcoin is trading below both its True Market Mean of $76,600 and the cost basis for short-term holders at $72,200. Experts warn that until Bitcoin decisively reclaims these key resistance levels, the market remains deeply undervalued and is structurally exposed to further downside risk at any time.

The most concerning aspect is the intensifying phenomenon of capitulation (sell-off) by long-term holders (LTHs) who accumulated supply near past all-time highs. The proportion of long-term holders in total realized losses surged from 15% in early February to a recent 43%, and the realized losses of entities holding Bitcoin for more than 155 days reached an average of approximately $280 million per day, marking the highest level since December 2022. It appears that every time the price attempts to rebound, selling pressure from these loss-making positions floods the market, acting as a powerful boomerang preventing it from breaking through upper resistance levels.

Furthermore, institutional demand, which should serve as a strong backbone for the market, is severely lacking. The daily net outflow of US Bitcoin spot ETFs peaked at $193 million in early June and has recently slowed to around $88.9 million, providing some relief, but on a monthly basis, net outflows continue. In particular, the daily trading volume of spot ETFs is stuck between $650 million and $950 million, which is a staggering 80% decrease from the peak of $4.4 billion recorded in October 2025, demonstrating that institutional confidence has not returned.

The slight signs of improvement in the derivatives market offer some comfort. The Put-to-Call ratio for Bitcoin options has fallen to 0.56, its lowest this year, and the perpetual futures funding rate also indicates that traders are cautiously shifting to long (buy) positions instead of betting on a downside. However, the 25-delta skew indicator in the options market still remains positive, indicating that investors are still paying expensive premiums for downside protection. A short-term trend reversal can only be expected if the aggregated options Max Pain price of $66,000 is reclaimed. Currently, Bitcoin is consolidating at around $62,012, down 2.5% from 24 hours ago.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*