SpaceX (SPCX), going to $10 trillion market cap?...Wall Street: "Key Infrastructure Company of the 21st Century"

▲ SpaceX (SPCX), Dollar (USD)/AI Generated Image

Wall Street forecasts suggest that SpaceX (SpaceX, SPCX) market capitalization could exceed $10 trillion. The analyst who presented a target price of $800 and a 435% upside potential bet on a scenario where Starship lowers space transportation costs by 99%.

According to U.S. investment media outlet The Motley Fool on July 8 (local time), Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale issued a strong buy rating for SpaceX with a target price of $800. This is Wall Street's highest target price, reflecting a 435% upside potential compared to Tuesday's closing price. Gesuale described SpaceX as “one of the industrial infrastructure companies that will define the 21st century.”

Gesuale's key focus is on the next-generation spacecraft, Starship. He analyzed that Starship could lower the cost of transporting cargo to orbit by 99% and increase its loading capacity by 10 times. He argued that the combination of space commercialization and artificial intelligence (AI) is leading to “the most important infrastructure convergence since the advent of the internet.”

SpaceX's growth structure was also cited as a basis for the optimistic outlook. The existing Falcon rocket business has funded the Starlink satellite internet business, and Starlink's profits are supporting Starship's development. Gesuale explained that Starship is, in turn, creating a powerful virtuous cycle of growth by opening up next-generation business platforms. He projected that SpaceX's revenue would increase approximately 22 times from $38.5 billion to $837 billion, and EBITDA would grow more than 39 times from $17.7 billion to $696 billion.

However, the $10 trillion forecast comes with a major prerequisite: Starship's full reusability technology. While Starship recently completed its 12th test flight, there is no official schedule for its development completion yet. Space data centers also face remaining technical challenges, including orbital design, radiation-resistant semiconductors, and high-power lasers for transmitting data to the ground. Citi analyst John Godyn also issued a buy rating with a target price of $200, proposing a scenario where it could rise to $900 if major engineering objectives are achieved on a large scale.

The high valuation was identified as a burden. SpaceX's revenue for the past 12 months was $19.3 billion, and its stock is valued at 102 times revenue and approximately 42 times its estimated 2026 revenue. While acknowledging SpaceX's growth potential, The Motley Fool assessed that for the $10 trillion scenario to materialize, the development of several key technologies, including Starship and space data centers, must proceed without setbacks.

[Article Key Summary]

-Raymond James set a target price of $800 for SpaceX, forecasting a 435% increase and the possibility of its market capitalization exceeding $10 trillion.

-SpaceX's revenue is expected to increase from $38.5 billion to $837 billion, and EBITDA from $17.7 billion to $696 billion.

-The Motley Fool assessed that Starship's full reusability and the development of key technologies for space data centers are major conditions for the $10 trillion forecast to become a reality.

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