"SpaceX, Be Nervous"...Morgan Stanley Raises Rocket Lab (RKLB) Target Price from $185 to $293

▲ Rocket Lab (RKLB), space industry/AI generated image

Wall Street forecasts suggest that Rocket Lab (RKLB) stock could surge by 259% by following SpaceX's (SPCX) growth strategy. Morgan Stanley significantly raised its bull-case scenario target price from $185 to $293.

According to the economic news outlet MarketWatch on July 8 (local time), Morgan Stanley raised Rocket Lab's bull-case scenario target price to $293. This reflects a potential upside of 259%. The core of the re-evaluation is the strategy of expanding business beyond rocket launches into space infrastructure and high-margin services.

Morgan Stanley analyst Kristine Liwag stated, "SpaceX has shown that the greatest value creation in the space economy does not come solely from the launch business." She highlighted the strategy of directly owning differentiated space infrastructure and building recurring high-margin services.

Rocket Lab's space systems business accounted for 67% of its total revenue in 2025. It also exceeded half of the contract backlog as of March 31. Morgan Stanley projects that this business could grow by an average of 38% annually until 2028. Rocket Lab has also acquired space robotics company Motiv Space Systems and laser optical communications company Mynaric.

The acquisition agreement for Iridium Communications (IRDM) was also evaluated as a key move towards a SpaceX-style vertical integration strategy. Liwag stated, "This deal significantly strengthens Rocket Lab's strategic position by expanding its presence beyond the launch business into satellite connectivity." However, Morgan Stanley maintained its base-case target price of $105 and an 'Overweight' rating.

Rocket Lab aims for the first launch of its medium-lift launch vehicle, Neutron, by the end of this year. Rocket Lab CFO Adam Spice said, "Ultimately, we want to utilize Neutron for our own demand." He explained that Neutron is crucial for both the launch business and satellite constellation deployment plans.

[Article Key Summary]

-Morgan Stanley raised Rocket Lab's bull-case scenario target price from $185 to $293, indicating a 259% upside potential.

-Rocket Lab's space systems business accounted for 67% of 2025 revenue and is projected to grow by an average of 38% annually until 2028.

-Morgan Stanley assessed that Rocket Lab's strategy of expanding space infrastructure and satellite connectivity resembles SpaceX's vertical integration model.

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