Bitcoin (BTC), Another Plunge After a 50% Drop?... "Could fall to $40,000 by October"

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), Cryptocurrency Decline/AI Generated Image

Bitcoin (BTC) plunged about 50% from its high of over $126,000 last year, but the debate over the cycle's bottom has not ended. Some analysts anticipate a bottom formation around October, suggesting a potential further drop to $40,000-$45,000.

According to Cointelegraph, a cryptocurrency specialized media outlet, on July 7 (local time), Bitcoin was trading around $64,000 at the time of writing. This is approximately a 50% drop compared to its all-time high of over $126,000 in October last year. Some institutions, including Standard Chartered, suggested that the cycle bottom might have already formed last month, citing demand from ETFs and Bitcoin-holding companies, and improved long-term capital flows.

Russell Thomson, Chief Investment Officer at Hilbert Capital, diagnosed that Bitcoin is still in a downward cycle. Thomson predicted that after retesting $56,000-$52,000, if losses expand, there is a possibility it could fall to $40,000-$45,000. He suggested October 2026 as the time for the cycle bottom to form.

Thomson stated, "Interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve or the passage of cryptocurrency market structure legislation in the US could accelerate the timing of the bottom formation." Citibank analysts also lowered Bitcoin's 12-month price target from $112,000 to $82,000 on July 1. This judgment is based on the increasing sensitivity of Bitcoin to risk assets and macroeconomic liquidity flows as its connection with traditional financial markets strengthens.

André Dragosch, Head of Research Europe at Bitwise, assessed the current market as the "late stage of a bear market." He said, "I don't think we've confirmed the final bottom yet, but we are probably very close." Investor sentiment has deteriorated to levels seen immediately after the FTX collapse in 2022, and Galaxy Research presented the possibility of Bitcoin falling to $40,000-$46,000 in its base scenario, depending on liquidity and macroeconomic conditions.

Dean Chen, an analyst at Bitunix, emphasized that one should look at the direction of global risk capital rather than the timing of Bitcoin's bottom. Chen stated, "The more important question is when cryptocurrencies will once again become the most attractive investment for global risk capital." The analysis suggests that Bitcoin could establish a long-term price base, unlike in the past, due to competition for funds heading towards AI and stock markets, and the increasing impact of open interest and funding rates in the derivatives market.

[Article Key Summary]

-Bitcoin fell by about 50% from its high of over $126,000 last year, but analysts' forecasts on whether it has reached the final cycle bottom are divided.

-Russell Thomson predicted a retest of $56,000-$52,000 and a potential further drop to $40,000-$45,000, forecasting a bottom formation around October 2026.

-André Dragosch assessed the current market as the late stage of a bear market, and Dean Chen analyzed that the timing of global risk capital returning to cryptocurrencies is more crucial.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*