Coffee futures, highest surge in the 21st century..."Surpassed Bitcoin (BTC) and gold"

▲ Coffee, price increase/AI generated image

Coffee futures soared 16.19% in a single day, marking the largest daily increase in the 21st century. Behind this surge, which even Bitcoin and gold couldn't keep up with, are delays in Brazil's harvest, declining inventories, and the risk of a super El Niño.

According to cryptocurrency specialized media BeInCrypto on July 7 (local time), Arabica coffee futures jumped 16.19% on Monday, closing at their highest level in five and a half months. This is the largest single-day increase this century. Robusta futures also rose 8.83%, reaching their highest level in five months.

Coffee futures have risen about 43% from a low of approximately 239 cents per pound in early June. September Arabica futures rose 48.75 cents on Monday, marking the largest daily increase since at least 2000. Brazil's 2026-2027 harvest rate was recorded at 52% as of July 1, falling below last year's 60% and the recent five-year average of 55%.

JUST IN 🚨: Coffee soars more than 16% for its biggest gain this century ☕ 📈 pic.twitter.com/4flEHhGkoD

— Barchart (@Barchart) July 6, 2026

Weather and inventory conditions also pushed up prices. Minas Gerais, Brazil's largest Arabica producing region, received no rain for the week leading up to July 5. ICE Arabica inventories fell to 366,756 bags on Monday, the lowest level in two years and three months. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) indicated a 67% chance of a record-breaking super El Niño.

The prospect of oversupply has not entirely disappeared. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) expects Brazil's coffee production to reach a record high of 71.9 million bags. Rabobank raised its Arabica oversupply forecast to 9.5 million bags. This forecast was behind the Arabica price being pushed to a 19-month low just four weeks ago.

Technically, the 363-370 cent range was presented as a key resistance level. The Fibonacci 61.8% retracement line is located at 363.26 cents. 370.65 cents is the high from late January. The Relative Strength Index entered the overbought zone at approximately 75. If the closing price holds the 315-319 cent range, the bullish structure will be maintained, and if the 363-370 cent range is breached, 397 cents and the psychological resistance level of 400 cents were suggested as the next price targets.

[Article Key Summary]

-Arabica coffee futures surged 16.19% in a single day, marking the largest daily increase this century.

-Delays in Brazil's harvest, declining ICE inventories, and the risk of a super El Niño were cited as reasons for the rise in coffee prices.

-Technically, 363-370 cents was presented as a key resistance level, with 397-400 cents mentioned as the next price target if breached.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*