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▲ Photo: XRP
XRP has once again touched the upper boundary of a year-long falling wedge pattern. Concurrently, trading volume has surged more than fourfold, leading to a technical forecast that XRP could jump by about 30% to $1.5 if it breaks past $1.2.
According to financial market specialist media 24/7 Wall St. on July 4 (local time), XRP rose over 3% to reach $1.14, marking its fourth consecutive trading day of gains. Its weekly gain was also approximately 8%, showing the strongest momentum since the mid-June rebound. The downtrend line that has blocked all rebounds since its peak of $3.65 last July is also being tested again.
XRP has been moving within a falling wedge pattern for about a year, where both highs and lows have been decreasing. On July 3, it broke above the short-term downtrend line formed since late May, creating a higher high for the first time than the previous high. The first target price, applying the height of the falling wedge to the breakout point, is $1.5, which is about 32% higher than $1.14. If a strong uptrend continues, $1.8-$2.1 is presented as an extended target range.
Technical pattern statistics also supported the bullish scenario. In research by Thomas Bulkowski, falling wedges broke upwards approximately 68% of the time, with an average increase of about 38% after a confirmed breakout. However, about a quarter of upward breakouts were failed cases where the price temporarily crossed the trendline only to fall back into the pattern, making closing price confirmation a key condition.
Trading volume increased more than fourfold from approximately $400 million per day at the end of June to over $1.7 billion. However, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) remained at 32-37, not yet confirming a shift in upward momentum. A bullish divergence appeared where XRP price made a lower low while the RSI formed a higher low, and analysis suggests that strengthening upward momentum can only be confirmed once the RSI surpasses 50. Whether Bitcoin (BTC) breaks through $63,000-$65,000 was also cited as a variable that could increase XRP's upward potential.
For XRP to break out of the falling wedge, it needs to form a daily closing price above $1.18-$1.2. In this zone, approximately 50 million XRP were last bought, so selling pressure is expected, and at $1.06, there is a buying price level of approximately 830 million XRP. While $1.5 is presented as the first target upon breaking $1.18-$1.2, analysis suggests that if it closes daily below $1.02, the year-long pattern will be invalidated, and it could test the support zone of $0.85-$0.9 after $1.
[Key Article Summary]
-XRP is testing the upper boundary of a year-long falling wedge, and a breakthrough of $1.18-$1.2 is a key confirmation condition.
-The target price for a falling wedge breakout is set at $1.5, and trading volume has increased more than fourfold from approximately $400 million in late June to over $1.7 billion.
-Analysis suggests that if the daily closes below $1.02, the bullish pattern will be invalidated, and it could test the $0.85-$0.9 support zone.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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