Was Bitcoin's Break Above $100,000 a Mirage? Only a 17% Chance of Rising This Year

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A gloomy outlook that Bitcoin (BTC) has only a 17% chance of reaching the $100,000 mark this year is deepening investors' concerns. Recently, BTC has been trapped in a narrow range between $58,000 and $62,000, significantly down from its peak of $126,000 recorded in October last year. Experts predict that a dull sideways trend will continue for some time without a dramatic rebound. Bitcoin's direction in the second half of this year is expected to be determined by several key variables beyond human control, such as the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate policy and the inflow and outflow of spot ETF funds.

According to cryptocurrency specialized media Watcher.Guru on July 5 (local time), Bitcoin started above $93,000 at the beginning of this year but closed around $60,000 at the end of June, showing a clear bearish trend, including recording its lowest level in 21 months during the process. However, historically, July has ended with gains in 9 out of the past 13 years, recording an average return of over 7%. Therefore, cautious optimism is emerging that a turnaround could be possible once the summer market kicks into full gear. Key factors currently holding back the market include outflows from spot ETFs, a strong dollar, and the Fed's ambiguous stance on future monetary policy.

Wall Street's views are sharply divided, failing to establish a clear direction. Standard Chartered maintained its year-end target price of $100,000, suggesting that the current bearish period could turn into a buying opportunity if selling pressure from spot ETFs eases. Citi, on the other hand, significantly lowered its 12-month Bitcoin target price from the previous $143,000 to $82,000, citing ETF outflows, slowing investor demand, and delays in US crypto legislation. Amid such conflicting analyses from various institutions, James Butterfill, Head of Research at CoinShares, assessed the first half of this year as a period for building a foundation for a full-fledged leap and diagnosed that more constructive price movements are likely to appear in the second half.

Some experts still keep the possibility of a strong rally open. Ilya Kalchev, an analyst at cryptocurrency exchange Nexo, predicted that Bitcoin could surpass its previous highs if the financial environment becomes favorable, with the Fed shifting to an accommodative monetary policy, a weakening dollar, and increased market liquidity. For this bullish scenario to materialize, selling pressure from long-term holders must subside, coupled with continuous institutional fund inflows and market-friendly interest rate cuts from the Fed, but currently, none of these are guaranteed.

Conversely, there are also significant warnings that downward pressure could intensify. Analysis suggests that if the Fed maintains its hawkish stance, and dollar strength and spot ETF outflows do not stop, Bitcoin's price could further decline to a realistic support level of $53,000 to $57,000. In particular, as Fed officials have not provided clear forward guidance recently and no new economic outlook indicators will be released before September, market uncertainty is expected to persist until the Fed meeting scheduled for late July. Ultimately, until a clear catalyst such as regulatory progress or a change in the Fed's stance emerges, the focus remains on stagnation within the $60,000 range.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and we are not responsible for investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*