"Despite a Wealth of Good News"...Can XRP (Ripple) Overcome the Shock of a 70% Fall from its Peak and Recover?

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While Ripple accumulated positive news in terms of regulation, institutional adoption, and commercialization, XRP plummeted 70% from its peak in one year. The market reflected macroeconomic shocks and selling pressure from early holders before Ripple's achievements.

According to crypto media outlet Benzinga on July 3 (local time), XRP rose to $3.65 in July 2025 and is currently trading 70% below that peak. During the same period, Ripple secured institutional contracts. It also achieved regulatory victories. Inflows into XRP spot ETFs also continued.

The starting point of the surge was after Donald Trump was elected US President. XRP soared from $0.49 to $3.39 within weeks of Trump's election. Investors front-ran a shift in regulatory sentiment. Subsequently, every time good news emerged, the price jumped first. Selling pressure then poured in at the confirmation point.

The decline was exacerbated by three macroeconomic shocks. China's tariff announcement in October 2025 wiped out $19 billion in cryptocurrency leveraged positions in a single day. In 'Black Sunday II' in February, futures liquidations amounted to $2.2 billion. In this process, 335,000 traders suffered losses. Subsequently, US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran liquidated $100 million in cryptocurrency long positions in just 15 minutes.

Even institutional positive news could not absorb the selling volume. Deutsche Bank integrated Ripple's payment network. Aviva Investors embarked on fund tokenization using the XRP Ledger. Société Générale launched a Euro stablecoin on the XRP Ledger in the same week. However, the price moved more sensitively to macroeconomic fear and risk aversion than to Ripple's fundamentals.

Structural issues also emerged. Ripple's partnerships did not directly translate into XRP demand. Open USD is an independent structure involving over 140 partners, including Visa (V), Mastercard (MA), and BlackRock (BLK). The XRP Ledger can be used as one of several options. Benzinga pinpointed this as a key reason for the divergence between XRP's price and Ripple's business performance.

Currently, XRP is testing the one-year downtrend line that has persisted since its July 2025 peak. This trendline has prevented all rebounds over the past 11 months. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) showed a third bullish divergence signal. Previous signals in November 2025 and February 2026 led to rebounds of 40% and 80%, respectively. However, analysis suggests that XRP's decline is not due to a collapse in Ripple's business, but rather from macroeconomic shocks, early holder selling, and Bitcoin (BTC)-centric altcoin market pressure.

[Article Key Summary]

-Despite Ripple's institutional contracts and regulatory positive news, XRP fell 70% from its July 2025 peak.

-China's tariff announcement, Black Sunday II, and Middle East military shocks increased leveraged liquidations and risk aversion.

-Ripple's partnerships did not fully translate into direct XRP demand, and early holder selling pressure also suppressed price rebounds.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. This content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*