Polymarket "Bitcoin (BTC), 21% Chance of Reclaiming $70,000 in July"

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

Although Bitcoin (BTC) has recovered to the $62,000 range, Polymarket investors see a low 21% chance of it hitting $70,000 within July.

According to cryptocurrency media outlet Bitcoin.com on July 3 (local time), a contract asking whether Bitcoin would reach $70,000 by the end of July traded at 21 cents on Polymarket. This implies a probability of approximately 21%. About $102,000 was staked on this price point. The total betting volume for Bitcoin prices in July is $1.16 million.

Investors believe a rebound itself is possible. The probability of reaching $62,500 was set at 92%. The probability of $65,000 is 63%. However, $67,500 was only 39%, $72,500 was 11%, and $75,000 was 5%. The market trend leans towards a limited recovery rather than a complete trend reversal.

The contract condition is not based on the closing price at the end of the month. It is met if the 1-minute high on Binance's Bitcoin/USDT trading pair reaches $70,000 at least once between July 1st and July 31st at 11:59 PM. Despite these low-threshold conditions, 4 out of 5 people are betting on failure to reach $70,000.

Bitcoin spot ETF fund flows have revived. On the previous day, US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $221.7 million. This is the strongest daily inflow since early May. Previously, during the bearish period at the end of June, approximately $1.79 billion flowed out of Bitcoin spot ETFs.

On-chain indicators are fueling caution. CryptoQuant pointed to an increase in exchange inflows this week. Analysis also suggested that whales are moving coins to exchanges. Bitcoin tested support around $60,000 this week. Approximately $8,244 remains until $70,000. An additional increase of around 13% is needed within about four weeks.

Variables that could change the probabilities also remain in July. Expectations for the US cryptocurrency market structure bill (CLARITY) to pass the Senate could act as a regulatory positive. If Bitcoin spot ETF net inflows continue for a second consecutive week, the interpretation that the sell-off at the end of June was the bottom could also grow. However, current Polymarket prices show a willingness to bet on a recovery to $65,000 but remain cool towards breaking $70,000.

[Key Article Summary]

-Polymarket investors have set the probability of Bitcoin reaching $70,000 in July at 21%.

-The probability of reaching $65,000 is 63%, but the probability of $75,000 is only 5%.

-US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $221.7 million, but increased exchange inflows and whale movements were presented as signals to watch for volatility.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*