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▲ Bitcoin (BTC), Quantum Computer/AI Generated Image ©
A shocking on-chain analysis has revealed that over 30% of Bitcoin (BTC) holdings, once believed to be securely stored on blockchain networks, could be vulnerable to future quantum computer attacks. This means a massive amount of assets, valued at hundreds of billions of dollars at current prices, carry potential security vulnerabilities, once again bringing hacking concerns and debates about the long-term survival of the digital asset market to the forefront. Experts point out that assets can be targeted even when simply stored in wallets (at-rest) without being moved, emphasizing the urgent need for the future adoption of quantum-resistant cryptography and a comprehensive overhaul of wallet management practices.
According to crypto media outlet Finbold on May 25 (local time), data released by on-chain data analytics firm Glassnode confirmed that approximately 6.04 million BTC, accounting for 30.2% of Bitcoin's total circulating supply, have their public keys directly exposed on-chain. Coins with exposed public keys theoretically carry the risk of their private keys being hacked in the future via Shor's Algorithm on sufficiently advanced quantum computers. In contrast, the remaining 13.99 million BTC, representing 69.8%, were analyzed to be in a secure state with their public keys not exposed externally.
Experts have categorized Bitcoin's quantum computer risk exposure pathways into two main categories: structural factors and operational factors. Firstly, structurally exposed holdings were found to be 1.92 million BTC, accounting for 9.6% of the total supply, representing vulnerabilities arising from the system's design itself. This includes early Bitcoin's 'Pay-to-Public-Key' output method, bare multisig structures, and Taproot output methods, all of which reflect the limitations of the initial network design.
A larger concern is the operationally exposed holdings, which stem from user negligence or poor storage practices, accounting for 4.12 million BTC, or 20.6% of the total supply. This results from the unnecessary leakage of public keys externally due to a combination of indiscriminate address reuse, partial spending of unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs), and some poorly managed custody environments. Centralized cryptocurrency exchanges, in particular, were identified as hotbeds for such operational risks, with these exchanges holding a staggering 1.63 million to 1.66 million BTC of the total operationally exposed amount.
Interestingly, the level of defense against quantum computers varied sharply depending on the asset custodians or entities. In stark contrast to the vulnerabilities of individual investors or exchanges, so-called state-owned Bitcoin holdings, confiscated or held by major sovereign governments such as the United States, the United Kingdom, and El Salvador, showed a virtually 'zero' risk exposure, demonstrating a perfect state of security. The media advised that exchanges must extensively overhaul their deposit management strategies within wallets, prohibit address reuse, and implement periodic rotation of change addresses to mitigate this enormous potential threat.
However, this analysis does not directly evaluate current cryptocurrency hacking techniques or the effectiveness of specific custodial institutions' security systems, nor does it predict the exact timing when actual quantum computer attacks will materialize. Glassnode emphasized that this research merely provides a data-driven snapshot of the current public key exposure across the entire Bitcoin supply. Nevertheless, to protect Bitcoin's reputation as a store of value in the long term, thorough personal wallet hygiene and future network-level protocol upgrades are expected to be essential.
*Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not take responsibility for investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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