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▲ Bitcoin (BTC)
Bitcoin (BTC) is losing its direction after failing to break past the $78,000 resistance level. Amid a massive outflow of funds from US Bitcoin spot ETFs and a sharp drop in Coinbase premium, an analysis suggests that the market structure has become more unstable as individual investors are flocking to leveraged long positions.
According to NewsBTC on May 25 (local time), a CryptoOnchain report, which analyzed US Bitcoin spot ETF fund flows and Binance on-chain metrics, revealed a structural discrepancy within the market. Bitcoin is struggling to push above $78,000, and while there isn't a strong collapse, it also isn't sustaining an upward trend.
The report highlighted the departure of institutional demand as the most significant point. Over the past two weeks, US Bitcoin spot ETFs have experienced net outflows exceeding $1.74 billion. NewsBTC pointed out that the institutional buying that led Bitcoin's recovery from lows has not simply paused but has reversed. The analysis suggests that Wall Street is selling off its holdings into the market's rebound rather than engaging in low-price buying.
The Coinbase premium gap was also presented as a supporting signal for institutional exit. This indicator, which shows the price difference between Coinbase and offshore exchanges, is used to gauge US institutional spot demand. According to the report, the Coinbase premium gap plummeted by 948% compared to the 90-day baseline, falling deep into negative territory.
Where institutional demand has disappeared, exchange inflows are accumulating. CryptoOnchain analyzed that Binance Bitcoin net inflows were 425% higher than the 90-day baseline. NewsBTC reported that the supply exiting the US ETF structure is simultaneously flowing into the world's largest exchange.
The selling entities have also become clear. Coins held for 6 to 12 months are moving at a rate 450% higher than the past baseline. NewsBTC explained that this is an on-chain trace of holders who accumulated Bitcoin during last year's recovery taking profits in a period of weakening institutional demand.
The problem is the weak buying power to absorb the new incoming supply. The report stated that while supply is flowing into exchanges, buying power is draining, viewing the imbalance between these two flows as a structural condition that could lead to price corrections.
Retail investor positions were identified as an even riskier signal. Even with $1.74 billion exiting ETFs and the Coinbase premium falling deep into negative territory, Binance funding rates remained 434% higher than normal levels. NewsBTC analyzed that retail investors are paying premiums to maintain leveraged long positions in a market where institutional spot demand is collapsing and supply is flooding exchanges.
CryptoOnchain concluded that heavy ETF outflows, decreasing stablecoin liquidity, and excessively concentrated retail investor long positions are similar to conditions that previously created large downside liquidation cascades. However, positive ETF flows indicating a resumption of institutional buying and a recovery in Coinbase premium have not yet appeared.
In terms of technical trends, Bitcoin is also at a decisive point. Bitcoin failed to sustain its upward momentum above $82,000, near its May high, and has since been consolidating below the $78,000 resistance. The area around $75,000, where the 50-day moving average is located, is acting as a key short-term support level, and buyers have repeatedly defended this zone during recent corrections.
Conversely, a clear loss of $75,000 could put the chart's demand zone, ranging from $71,000 to $73,000, back to the test. Bitcoin is facing the $75,000 support level as a short-term turning point amid a confluence of institutional exit, exchange supply inflow, and retail investor leveraged long bias.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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