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▲ Bitcoin (BTC)
Bitcoin (BTC) has once again opened up the possibility of re-breaking $80,000 amidst expectations of easing tensions between the United States and Iran. However, some analysts warned that even if a peace agreement is confirmed, a direct upward rally might not follow immediately; instead, a pattern of retesting the $74,000 region before bouncing back could emerge.
According to Cryptopotato on May 25 (local time), Bitcoin recovered to around $78,000 on Monday. Analysts linked the recent rebound to the easing of tensions between the US and Iran and the broader recovery expectations for risk assets. Traders who had been wary of further declines over the past two weeks are now watching to see if Bitcoin can reclaim the early $80,000 range and lead an altcoin surge.
Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe assessed via X (formerly Twitter) that a Middle East peace agreement could be the macroeconomic catalyst the crypto market has been waiting for. He stated, “Oil prices are going down, interest rates are going down, and risk assets will show a good trend. Bitcoin will break above $80,000 again, and altcoins will have their turn throughout the summer.” Van de Poppe also explained that the key was whether Bitcoin would reclaim its critical resistance zone, which it now appears to have done.
This rebound quickly followed Trump's remarks on Iran. Bitcoin fell to just over $74,000 on Saturday morning after Trump issued new threats against Iran. Later, when Trump announced that both sides had made substantial progress toward a permanent peace agreement, Bitcoin rebounded to around $77,200 before hitting resistance again.
The bullish sentiment is not universally dominant. Trader Sykodelic suggested that if a peace agreement is announced this week, a dip might occur before a sustained rise. He said, “It could sweep the weekend lows, test the $74,000 region one more time, tempting bearish bets again, and then push higher into June.” He also pointed out that Bitcoin closed above its weekly 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages and the bullish support band it has tracked for about three months.
On-chain metrics lean towards caution. On-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. analyzed that approximately 18,000 BTC flowed into exchanges last week, while about 16,000 BTC exited US spot Bitcoin ETFs. He stated, “ETF demand could not absorb the inflow into exchanges, instead adding more pressure.” The simultaneous increase in exchange supply and ETF outflows is cited as a limiting factor for a short-term rebound.
Merlijn The Trader set a short-term target range of $82,000. He viewed this area as a liquidity cluster where trapped sellers could be pressured. However, he stated that he plans to prepare short positions around $82,000 and set a longer downside target of $67,000.
Dean Crypto Trades analyzed that Bitcoin needs to reclaim the early $80,000 range, where the 200-day moving average is located, and turn that price level into a higher low. Without such a recovery, the recent rebound could simply be another lower high within the downtrend that has continued since the October 2025 peak. Bitcoin is at a crossroads where conflicting expectations of Middle East peace, sluggish ETF demand, and exchange inflows will determine whether it re-breaks $80,000.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and is not responsible for investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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