Bitcoin, Can We Trust the Rebound to $80,000?...Déjà Vu of Past 78% Crash Structure

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)/ChatGPT generated image

A warning has been raised that a structure similar to past bear markets is reappearing on the weekly chart of Bitcoin (BTC). NewsBTC reported on May 14 (local time) that Bitcoin has already passed through the upper distribution zone and the consolidation zone below it, and the current price movement appears to be forming a redistribution zone.

According to NewsBTC, this analysis compares the current Bitcoin weekly chart to the bear market structure that lasted from 2021 to 2022. At that time, Bitcoin first created a distribution zone near its peak, then entered a consolidation zone below it where prices seemed to stabilize. Subsequently, a redistribution zone formed at a lower level, and after this structure concluded, Bitcoin fell by 78% over eight months.

The first distribution zone in 2021 appeared when Bitcoin reached its then-peak of around $69,000. In the current cycle, the same pattern is analyzed to have formed in the $108,000 to $126,000 range. The second stage was a consolidation zone where prices stabilized just below the top of the distribution.

The stage currently drawing attention in the market is the third, the redistribution zone. NewsBTC explained that redistribution is a secondary range formed at a lower position than the first consolidation, appearing before a decisive decline after sellers regain control. In 2021, after this redistribution phase ended, Bitcoin's price fell by 78% over eight months.

However, this chart structure is not immediately confirmed as a sell signal. NewsBTC reported that while the current chart does not provide a clear answer, it shows a warning that the recent rebound above $80,000 should not be immediately concluded as a trend to re-break the all-time high. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $79,800.

Even if a redistribution zone is confirmed, a 78% crash or a specific rate of decline is not guaranteed. However, if a 78% drop from the current price were to repeat, Bitcoin's price would fall below $25,000.

NewsBTC also pointed out that Bitcoin's fundamentals and market structure in 2026 are significantly different from those during past crashes. When Bitcoin recorded an all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025, the rise was backed by strong ETF inflows and a favorable regulatory environment, which was an institutional foundation that did not exist four years prior.

Current market sentiment has returned to neutral. NewsBTC conveyed, with a balanced interpretation, that Bitcoin is currently in a confirmation zone. It analyzed that if Bitcoin strongly recovers above $84,000 on a weekly basis, it could signal that sell signals are weakening and buyers are dominating the market.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*