Bitcoin Recovers $80,000 Despite Money Outflow...Can ETF Outflows Be Ignored Now?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)/AI Generated Image

Bitcoin (BTC) has recovered to $80,000 despite massive ETF outflows. Benzinga reported on May 14 (local time) that while $635.2 million flowed out of Bitcoin ETFs on Wednesday, Thursday's price action could weaken warnings of a drop to $70,000.

According to Benzinga, this outflow was the largest daily outflow since January 29. At that time, approximately $818 million flowed out of Bitcoin ETFs. On a weekly basis, outflows increased to $841.2 million, and ETFs are increasingly likely to record their first weekly net loss after a six-week consecutive upward trend that saw approximately $3.4 billion in net inflows.

By ETF, BlackRock's iBIT led the losses with an outflow of approximately $285 million. ARK 21Shares' ARKB and Fidelity's FBTC also saw outflows of $177 million and $133.2 million, respectively. In contrast, Morgan Stanley's MSBT recorded no outflows on Wednesday, has had no outflows since its launch on April 8, and has accumulated approximately $256 million to date.

On-chain metrics pointed to a potential support level around $70,000. CryptoQuant analysts cited increased profit-taking, high unrealized profits, and weakening US spot demand as signs of slowing upward momentum. Bitcoin rebounded 37% from its April low and tested $82,400, near the 200-day moving average. This zone was mentioned as a price level that acted as resistance during past bear market rallies.

According to on-chain data, if a deeper correction occurs, the $70,000 level was suggested as support. CryptoQuant explained that this price level was a key zone that transitioned from resistance to support in past bear markets and represents the average acquisition cost for short-term investors. An analysis also suggested that at this level, the unrealized profit margin approaches zero, reducing the incentive for further selling.

Capital inflows improved but did not meet the criteria for a bull market expansion phase. The 30-day net position change in realized market cap recovered to $2.8 billion per month, indicating improved capital inflows. However, this still fell short of the over $10 billion per month seen during past bull market expansion phases.

Glassnode analysts explained that from 2023 to 2025, at the beginning of each major rally, this indicator quickly accelerated from around $2 billion to $10 billion per month. While current figures are positive, they are not yet strong enough compared to those past benchmarks.

Bitcoin dropped to $78,885 on Thursday before recovering to $80,000. The price moved along the Keltner Channel midline of $79,150, which acted as dynamic support during the recovery period from April to May. Immediate overhead resistance is at $82,977, while $75,324 is suggested as a worst-case support level on the downside.

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