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▲ Prediction Market/ChatGPT Generated Image
In the cryptocurrency market, the prediction market trading structure, the performance of Bitcoin-holding companies, and discussions on US regulatory bills are simultaneously in flux, drawing investors' attention to major platforms and congressional procedures.
Cointelegraph reported on May 14 (local time) that Polymarket's monthly trading volume in April decreased compared to the previous month, and Japanese listed company Metaplanet significantly increased its operating profit through Bitcoin (BTC) option gains but recorded a substantial loss due to unrealized losses from falling Bitcoin prices. In the US Senate, more than 100 amendments have been submitted regarding key cryptocurrency bills, with ethics clauses and restrictions on stablecoin earnings emerging as key issues.
According to data from Dune Analytics, Polymarket and US-based trading applications recorded over $10.2 billion in trading volume in April. This is a decrease of approximately 8.9% from over $11.2 billion in March, marking the first time monthly activity has decreased from the previous month since August last year. In contrast, competitor Kalshi's trading volume in April increased by approximately 13% to $14.8 billion. The total monthly trading volume for prediction markets also increased by approximately 12.4% from $26.5 billion in March to $29.8 billion in April.
Tokyo Stock Exchange-listed Metaplanet reported an operating profit of 2.27 billion yen and net sales of approximately $19.5 million in the first quarter of the 2026 fiscal year. The operating profit margin reached 73.6%, with Bitcoin revenue-generating businesses, including Bitcoin option premiums and derivative valuation gains, accounting for most of the sales. Sales increased from approximately $5.5 million in the same period last year to approximately $19.5 million, and the hotel business continued to make a small but stable contribution.
However, Metaplanet recorded an ordinary loss of approximately $728 million due to non-cash valuation losses resulting from the decline in Bitcoin prices. Bitcoin's price fell by approximately 24% during the first quarter, from about $87,000 on January 1 to about $66,000 on March 31. This resulted in strong operating performance and significant losses simultaneously as the book value of the company's expanded Bitcoin holdings decreased.
In the US Senate Banking Committee, more than 100 amendments were submitted to the cryptocurrency market structure bill ahead of its markup on Thursday. While the details were not fully disclosed, stablecoin earnings, protection for cryptocurrency software developers, and ethics clauses were identified as key discussion topics. Democratic Senators Jack Reed and Tina Smith introduced amendments to strengthen the prohibition of stablecoin earnings, while Senator Chris Van Hollen proposed an ethics clause restricting the holding, promotion, and association of cryptocurrencies by the President, Vice President, senior officials, members of Congress, and their families. The bill aims to divide jurisdiction over cryptocurrencies among US market regulators, and the House of Representatives passed a related bill, named the Clarity Act, in July last year.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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