XRP: Will a 'Double Rally' Begin if it Crosses $1.49?..."Next Target is $1.71"

▲ XRP/ChatGPT generated image

As XRP retests the key resistance zone between $1.48 and $1.49, on-chain indicators and derivatives sentiment have improved, but the price has not yet shown a definitive breakout signal.

CoinSpeaker reported on May 13 (local time) that XRP was trading near $1.44, pressing against the top of a descending parallel channel that has limited its ascent since late April highs. On-chain indicators compiled by CryptoQuant showed a neutral to slightly bullish trend, and the spot market reportedly saw both buying dominance and easing selling pressure.

XRP tested the psychological resistance of $1.50 over the weekend but was pushed back. CoinSpeaker pointed out that the $1.45-$1.48 range is a critical zone that will determine XRP's short-term direction. The price remains above the 50-day exponential moving average of $1.44, which acted as support during the recent correction, but has not managed to break above the $1.48-$1.49 resistance zone, where the top of the descending channel and the 100-day exponential moving average converge.

Technical indicators are favorable but not decisive. The Relative Strength Index on the 4-hour chart is 61, showing improved momentum but not an overbought signal. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains above the 0 line, maintaining a bullish trend, but the price structure itself has not yet confirmed a breakout. According to Coinglass, the open interest weighted funding rate turned positive on Friday and recorded 0.0048% as of Tuesday. A structure where long positions pay short positions indicates that bullish bets are indeed increasing in the derivatives market.

On the on-chain side, accumulation signals are building up. Santiment stated that the number of wallets holding more than 10,000 XRP on the XRP Ledger reached an all-time high of 332,230. This trend is an extension of the increase that has continued since June 2024. CoinSpeaker assessed that the decrease in exchange inflows and accumulation below structural resistance is similar to past instances before a breakout, but this time, price confirmation has not yet occurred.

For an upside move, a daily close above $1.49 was presented as a key condition. If this level is broken with significant trading volume, it would simultaneously clear the top of the descending channel and the 100-day exponential moving average, potentially opening the next target at $1.71, where the 200-day exponential moving average is located. An additional upward range of $1.90 was mentioned. Conversely, if XRP fails to maintain $1.41 on a daily closing basis, the path down to $1.30 could reopen. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ripple's Q2 network update scheduled for the end of this month were also cited as short-term variables.

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