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▲ Bitcoin (BTC)/AI generated image ©
An analysis suggests that the Bitcoin (BTC) market cycle is showing structural changes different from the past. The diagnosis is that it is moving towards a mature market structure, combining lower volatility, longer accumulation phases, and shallower corrections, rather than the rapid surges and crashes that characterized past markets.
Bitcoinist reported on May 10 (local time) that the Bitcoin market is entering a volatility suppression phase, citing an analysis by cryptocurrency analyst Killa. Killa analyzed that the explosive parabolic rises and overheated peak formations seen in past Bitcoin cycles are gradually weakening, and more restrained and controlled price movements are replacing them.
These changes are also affecting the way the market corrects. In past cycles, rapid sell-offs and deep capitulation declines frequently occurred during the bottoming process, but it is explained that more structured and predictable corrections are likely to appear in the future. This aligns with the assessment that Bitcoin is becoming a market less vulnerable to disorderly deleveraging as it moves towards institutionalized expansion.
The MVRV price band was also presented as an indicator demonstrating this transition. In past cycles, Bitcoin strongly broke through the upper limit of the overheated zone and entered extremely overvalued territory, but in this cycle, it has remained within the upper boundary. The fact that it has not fully absorbed the historically overheated zone even during a bullish phase is interpreted as a sign that there has been a change in how the market reflects value.
Killa suggested that Bitcoin may no longer need to reach extremely overvalued zones to end its cycle. The market is finding equilibrium at levels close to, rather than strongly surpassing, that band, which could signify a 'great moderation' trend where both peaks and troughs are compressed.
It was also assessed that the current market environment is far from aggressive bearishness. Killa explained that the $65,000 range is still an area where one can have high conviction from a spot accumulation perspective. Bitcoin is currently evaluated as having entered an extended accumulation phase, building a long-term structure rather than chasing an immediate breakout.
Bitcoinist described this range as the long-term accumulation zone, commonly known as the 'Blue Zone'. In this phase, prices fluctuate and intermittent declines occur, but these provide specific opportunities to build positions. In the past, Bitcoin also consolidated for a significant period near local lows before major expansion phases, and a similar time-based accumulation is currently underway. However, the difference this time is that the downside depth is much shallower than in past cycles.
As of the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $80,274. Bitcoinist stated that the current market is not a phase to react with extreme optimism or pessimism but is closer to a long-term consolidation phase that filters out impatient investors. Killa analyzed that this could be a time for investors to systematically accumulate before a broader bull market returns to an upward trajectory.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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