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▲ USA, Iran, Bitcoin (BTC)/AI Generated Image
Bitcoin (BTC) surpassed $81,000 over the weekend, but this week's US inflation data and Donald Trump's remarks regarding Iran have emerged as pivotal points for its upward trend. Technically, $83,400 has been set as the next target, but analysis suggests that the 200-day exponential moving average and a Relative Strength Index (RSI) nearing overbought territory could increase short-term volatility.
BeInCrypto reported on May 10 (local time) that Bitcoin surpassed $81,000 over the weekend, with the next technical target set at $83,400 based on Fibonacci retracement levels. Bitcoin has recovered approximately 35% from its low of around $60,000 in February, with recent inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs cited as a factor supporting the rebound.
The first market variable this week is US macroeconomic data. The April Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released on Tuesday, followed by the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) monthly report on Wednesday. April retail sales are scheduled for Thursday, and industrial production data for Friday. BeInCrypto stated that if inflation comes in lower than expected, it could support risk-on sentiment, but hot inflation could delay the timing of interest rate cuts.
Political variables also overlapped. Trump claimed that Iran has been stalling against the US and the world for 47 years and criticized the $1.7 billion cash transfer to Iran during former President Barack Obama's administration. However, BeInCrypto clarified that Trump did not announce any new sanctions or military actions. These remarks came as Bitcoin was testing resistance around $81,000, highlighting geopolitical risks in the cryptocurrency market.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is trading within an ascending channel that began in early April near the $60,000 bottom. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $81,269, approaching resistance at the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) located at $82,036. This line coincides with a supply zone that prevented several rebounds during the downtrend from January to February. If Bitcoin successfully closes daily above $82,036, it would signify a recovery of the long-term trend line after approximately four months.
The next upside target is set at $83,399, which is the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level. This zone also aligns with the top of the ascending channel and is considered a potential area for profit-taking. BeInCrypto stated that if buying pressure absorbs the supply around $83,400, a measured target towards $86,500 could open up in the following weeks.
However, downside risks are also clear. Bitcoin's daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is 65.56, and its moving average is 61.89, both significantly above the neutral line of 50. While this indicates that buying pressure dominates the short-term direction, readings above 70 are interpreted as overbought territory. BeInCrypto analyzed that if the RSI fails to decisively cross above 70 while the price remains below the 200-day exponential moving average, a bearish divergence could form.
If a daily close occurs below the Fibonacci 50% retracement level of $78,915, the ascending channel structure would break, potentially leading to a retest of the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level at $74,431. Below that, the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement level of $68,884 is presented as the last support before the recovery scenario collapses.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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