Bitcoin, Long-Term Holders Resume Movement..."Not Panic Selling, But Strategic Selling"

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

As Bitcoin (BTC) recovered the $80,000 level, an on-chain analysis emerged, indicating that the market dominance of long-term holders is strengthening. The SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) indicator, which shows profit and loss status, revealed that long-term holders are showing a stronger profit-taking trend than short-term traders, leading to the interpretation that the market is moving from a correction phase to a long-term upward trend.

Bitcoinist reported on May 10 (local time), citing an analysis by CryptoQuant analyst Arab onchain, that the SOPR ratio between Bitcoin long-term holders and short-term holders approached 1.157. SOPR is an indicator that shows whether spent bitcoins moved from a state of profit or a state of loss.

Generally, if SOPR exceeds 1.0, it is interpreted to mean that investors are selling their holdings at a profit. Conversely, below 1.0, it is understood to mean that loss realization is greater. The key point of this analysis was that the SOPR ratio of long-term holders and short-term holders significantly exceeded the 90-day simple moving average baseline of 0.982.

Arab onchain analyzed that the current figures show that long-term Bitcoin holders are realizing stronger profits than short-term traders. Bitcoinist reported that this trend can be interpreted as a bullish signal for the overall market. The explanation is that a structure where long-term investors engage in strategic selling rather than panic selling can be seen as a process of increasing market maturity.

Bitcoin traded up to $82,000 in the past week, showing another strong weekly trend in Q2 2026. Considering the bearish trend that continued since last October, the movement back above $80,000 was cited as a strong technical signal indicating potential market recovery.

However, a rising SOPR ratio does not always have a positive effect. If the ratio rises too quickly, selling by long-term holders can become excessive, which can increase profit-taking pressure, slow down price increases, or trigger short-term corrections. Bitcoinist stated that while the current structure is generally positive, the intensity of long-term holder selling remains a variable that needs continuous monitoring.

Market sentiment is not yet fully in an overheated phase. Bitcoinist, citing Coincodex, reported that the overall market state is neutral, and the Fear & Greed Index recorded 38, indicating significant caution remains despite recent gains. Coincodex analysts predict that Bitcoin could maintain $86,068 within the next 5 days and rise to $99,919 within 3 months.

The core of this analysis is that the market is moving from a correction to a recovery phase, with the strengthening dominance of Bitcoin's long-term holders. If the SOPR ratio continues to significantly exceed the baseline, expectations for a medium-to-long-term bullish reversal for Bitcoin could increase, but if the pace of profit-taking by long-term holders accelerates, short-term volatility could also expand.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*