Ethereum 65%·Solana 100% Vulnerable...Will a Quantum Shock Arrive in 2030?

▲ Solana (SOL), Ethereum (ETH)

An analysis has revealed that Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) are largely exposed to future quantum computer threats. Project Eleven's 2026 report pointed out that approximately 65% of Ethereum and 100% of Solana have address structures vulnerable to quantum computer attacks.

According to crypto media outlet BeInCrypto on May 7 (local time), Project Eleven analyzed the quantum computer vulnerabilities of Ethereum and Solana, respectively, in its latest report. The report stated that in the case of Ethereum, three key cryptographic technologies could be exposed to quantum threats: the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA) used to protect user accounts, Boneh-Lynn-Shacham (BLS) signatures used in proof-of-stake consensus, and KZG commitments for blob data introduced by EIP-4844.

In particular, the issue was raised that network consensus stability could be shaken if validator BLS keys are recovered by attackers. The report analyzed that if a quantum attacker obtains a validator BLS key, they could create forged proofs, destabilize consensus, and trigger large-scale slashing. It was also explained that validator BLS keys are publicly exposed from the moment 32 ETH are deposited.

Solana's vulnerability was identified as a structural issue. Due to the Ed25519 design, each wallet's public key is directly included within the on-chain address. BeInCrypto reported that, unlike Bitcoin's (BTC) unspent transaction model, which provides some buffer to hide unrevealed unused keys, Solana's addresses are all vulnerable to quantum computers by design, according to the report.

However, both major networks are preparing a response. Developers at the Ethereum Foundation launched the Post-Quantum Ethereum website in March 2026. The team predicted that the Layer 1 protocol upgrade could be completed by 2029, with the full migration of the execution layer potentially extending beyond that.

The Solana camp is also preparing countermeasures against quantum computers. Anza and Firedancer, the Solana validator client developers, independently chose Falcon in April. Falcon is a post-quantum signature scheme approved by the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). The Solana Foundation stated that migration efforts are sufficiently researched and prepared to be implemented should quantum computers emerge as a real threat.

Project Eleven presented three scenarios for 'Q-Day,' the point at which quantum computers pose a real threat to existing cryptographic systems. The optimistic scenario is 2030, the moderate scenario is 2033, and the pessimistic scenario is 2042. However, the report explained that these forecasts are based on the assumption of gradual annual technological improvements and no major breakthroughs.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*