Bitcoin, bear market not over..."Believed in rebound, fell to October low" warning

▲ Bitcoin, stocks/ChatGPT generated image

Despite Bitcoin's (BTC) recent rebound, a warning has emerged that the bear market is not over. Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into the Cryptoverse, believes that Bitcoin is showing a similar pattern to past mid-bear market rallies, and that the current uptrend could top out in a few weeks and then decline again.

According to a BeInCrypto report on May 6 (local time), Cowen stated in a video recently released on his YouTube channel, "Bitcoin is showing an upward trend, but it has not yet escaped the bear market." Cowen analyzed that the current trend is following patterns repeated in 2014, 2018, and 2019. At that time, Bitcoin recovered major moving averages in the middle of a bear market before returning to a downtrend.

Cowen said, "I think this trend is likely to lead to a rebound that finds a peak in the next few weeks and then comes back down to those levels." He explained that while Bitcoin has recovered the bull market support band, in past cases, even after crossing that zone, the 200-day moving average acted as resistance, and the decline resumed.

However, Cowen also acknowledged reasons why the bearish view could be wrong. Bitcoin's year-to-date return significantly exceeds the average trend for a midterm election year. Currently, Bitcoin is about 10% below its year-start price, but the typical decline at the same point in time was between 30% and 35%. Cowen also cited Bitcoin's recapture of the bull market support band as a structural change.

Cowen cited the lack of investor enthusiasm as a reason why the current market might be different from the past. He said, "Bitcoin peaked amidst indifference, not euphoria." BeInCrypto reported that the lack of renewed interest from retail investors and the continued underperformance of altcoins against Bitcoin could make this bear market different from previous ones.

Nevertheless, Cowen believes a defensive stance should be maintained. He pointed out that in 2014, 2018, and 2019, Bitcoin rose above the bull market support band only to be pushed back down, with the 200-day moving average acting as resistance. Cowen said, "If I'm right, it will look so obvious. If I'm wrong, by the time a sufficiently different move appears, we will already be quite far from the lows."

Another signal Cowen is watching is the time interval between cycle lows. In recent past cycles, it took approximately 140 to 174 days for a new low to emerge. Cowen explained that the current period is 88 days and asked, "Who knows what will happen in the next three months?"

Cowen suggested that the current rebound could peak in a few weeks and retrace towards the bull market support band, and he also left open the possibility of an October low. Regarding investors who took profits on Bitcoin in the fourth quarter of last year when $300,000 forecasts were rampant, he said, "Those who took profits on Bitcoin in Q4 while others were shouting $300,000 are still in a good position."

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. This content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*