Bitcoin, real bottom still not reached despite recovery?...Expert "Wait 6 more months"

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), Dollar (USD)/ChatGPT generated image

Bitcoin (BTC) has been showing signs of price recovery since April. However, a cautious analysis suggests that approximately 6 more months are needed for a definitive bottom confirmation and trend reversal.

According to cryptocurrency specialized media NewsBTC on May 3 (local time), on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. analyzed Bitcoin's recovery path. Adler used an adjusted realized price model that reflects the actual circulating supply, excluding dormant holdings. This model captures periods where major investors are experiencing losses or are close to being in a loss-making position. The analysis shows that the lower bound of the RP Alive indicator is currently formed below $59,000.

Adler believes that the $59,000 level could be the starting point for Bitcoin's bottom formation. Given the current market structure, there is a possibility of one more additional decline. However, the bottoming process will not end in the short term. Adler predicted that the bottom formation period would take about 6 months. Despite the April rebound, the analysis suggests that more time is needed for a true recovery.

A key requirement for bottom formation is the return of real demand. Adler explained that demand does not arise from emotional reactions or temporary rebounds. Demand emerges when investors reconfirm value and approach it from a long-term perspective. Current on-chain data shows that real demand for Bitcoin remains weak.

Market participants had optimistic expectations after seeing the price recovery in April. However, the on-chain structure suggests that these expectations might have been somewhat premature. It is highly probable that a tedious bottoming-out process will continue before a full-fledged rebound begins. Instead of hasty investment decisions, an attitude of confirming the market's fundamental improvement is needed.

Even though Bitcoin's price is approaching the bottom, an immediate trend reversal is expected to be difficult. Price downward pressure may persist if demand has not fully recovered. Investors should monitor movements around the $59,000 support level and respond accordingly. The point at which macroscopic market demand revives will be the starting point for a true recovery.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*