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▲ Bitcoin (BTC), Bull Market (Bull) vs Bear Market (Bear)/ChatGPT generated image
Bitcoin (BTC) is aiming to break a market jinx by challenging a historical record it has never achieved during a bear market: closing three consecutive months in positive territory.
Crypto media outlet Bitcoinist reported on May 2nd (local time) that if Bitcoin continues its upward trend through May, following March and April, it will set a new record in virtual asset history. It rose approximately 2% in March and recorded a 12% return in April. Currently, its May return is also around 3%. An analysis of data over the past 13 years revealed no instances of three consecutive bullish candles during bear market cycles in 2014, 2018, and 2022.
Historically, May has been considered a favorable month for Bitcoin. It has closed higher in 7 out of the past 12 years and has seen profits for the last two consecutive years. However, a variable is that May has never recorded three consecutive years of gains on its own. YouTuber Crypto Rover pointed out that in past bear market years, there were only up to four positive months out of 12. In May 2014, it recorded a high return of 39.46%, but this did not lead to a sustained upward trend.
Currently, Bitcoin's price is trading around $78,367. There has been no significant change in the last 24 hours, and it has shown a slight increase of about 1% over 7 days. Looking at a broader period, it has recovered more than 17% of its value over the past 30 days, performing best among major cryptocurrencies. Shaking off its early-year sluggishness, it has stabilized its price trend over the past two months, laying the groundwork for a rebound.
On-chain data suggests that this rebound is more attributable to the futures market than to actual spot demand. A futures-driven rally can increase volatility and is likely a temporary phenomenon seen during bear market cycles. Experts warned that if historical statistics repeat, Bitcoin's recovery journey could face its first major hurdle. If it breaks the record and closes May with a gain, market sentiment is expected to shift sharply.
Whether Bitcoin will set an unprecedented record of three consecutive months of gains depends on its closing price at the end of May. All eyes of investors worldwide are focused on whether it will maintain past patterns and enter a correction phase or write new history based on momentum from the futures market. With the downward trend continuing in the first half of 2026, May's performance is expected to be an important milestone determining the direction of the overall market for the year.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. This content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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