Bitcoin ends 5-month decline, but investors are 'fearful'...When will it surpass $100,000?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), Dollar (USD), Wall Street/AI-generated image

Bitcoin (BTC) ended its five-month consecutive decline in April, recording its highest monthly gain in a year. However, investor sentiment remains in the fear stage, heightening market caution.

Bitcoinist reported on May 3 (local time) that Bitcoin rose 12% in April, marking its best performance since the 14% return recorded in April 2025. Crypto trader Daan Crypto Trades stated on X (formerly Twitter) that two consecutive bullish candles after five months of bearishness are bringing relief to the market. However, according to CoinGlass data, this return slightly fell short of April's historical average of 13%.

As of Friday, the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index recorded 39, remaining in the fear zone. Investors appear to be maintaining a cautious stance despite Bitcoin's positive close in April. Bitcoin, which started around $66,000 in early April, is currently trading around $78,400. This is approximately 35% lower than its all-time high of $125,100 recorded in October last year.

Market analysts' future outlooks are sharply divided. CryptoQuant, a cryptocurrency analytics firm, warned of potential price declines in the coming months, pointing out that the April rally was driven by futures traders rather than genuine structural demand. Conversely, Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading Capital, argued that Bitcoin does not necessarily need a special bullish narrative to break past $100,000. Van de Poppe expressed optimism that Bitcoin could reclaim the $100,000 level for the first time since November 13 last year.

Historical data sends somewhat positive signals for the May market. According to CoinGlass data, Bitcoin has an average return of 7.78% in May, making it one of the statistically favorable months. Cryptocurrency analyst Jelle briefly mentioned that an uptrend will resume next week, raising market expectations. While many traders are hoping for a repetition of these historical patterns, caution also exists, as past performance does not guarantee future returns.

Bitcoin is currently seeking direction around $78,473. The market tension is higher than ever as analyses of a futures market-led rebound clash with expectations for a seasonal bull run. Investors are keenly watching whether next week's market movements will be the true signal for reclaiming the $100,000 mark.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*