Dogecoin, 1-Year Decline Ends...Has the Escape Timing Finally Arrived?

▲ Dogecoin (DOGE)

Dogecoin (DOGE) has ended its approximately one-year decline and reached a psychological limit where long-term holders can escape loss zones. At the same time, it is laying a technical foundation for full-scale price expansion.

According to crypto media U.Today on May 3 (local time), Dogecoin ended several months of boring sideways movement and entered the $0.10 to $0.11 range, marking the initial phase of expanding buying interest. Dogecoin showed a solid bottoming out above the rising support line for most of the last quarter. The phenomenon of gradually higher lows and narrowing price fluctuations reflects a typical accumulation phase. The recent attempt to break through short-term resistance, accompanied by an increase in trading volume, proves that market participants' interest is finally recovering. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has also stopped merely drifting and moved into the bullish zone, indicating that upward momentum is genuinely strengthening.

However, it is still too early to be optimistic about a complete reversal of the macro trend. This is because it is currently testing the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which acted as a strong resistance line throughout the bear market. If Dogecoin fails to decisively break through and settle above this point, the current movement risks being merely a temporary recovery rally, not a confirmed reversal. The fact that the 200-day Exponential Moving Average is still positioned high suggests that downward pressure remains in the market. Although technical indicators are improving positively, a process of absorbing supply at the upper resistance line is essential for a full-fledged trend reversal.

On-chain data reveals the movement of long-term holders, indicating complex currents. Wallets that accumulated 14.06 million DOGE at an average of $0.382 between late 2024 and mid-2025 have broken a year of dormancy and moved funds. The value of their assets, which was approximately $5.37 million at the time, is currently at a loss of about $3.87 million. Although it did not reach a full recovery of the principal, long-term holders, feeling psychological pressure as the price approached key levels, have taken action. The reactivation of such dormant wallets is typically interpreted as a precursor to distribution and selling pressure, rather than accumulation.

The movement of funds to new, unidentified addresses is increasing market uncertainty. This could be a simple asset reallocation, but there is also a possibility that it is a preparatory step for large-scale selling. Chart analysis indicates that Dogecoin has entered a risky zone where trapped liquidity could be released all at once. While Dogecoin is sending initial bullish signals along with price stabilization, a warning light has been turned on regarding the potential release of selling pressure into the market.

If buying pressure successfully pushes the price above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average, the next target price is expected to be in the $0.12 to $0.14 range. Conversely, if it fails to break through resistance and the price is pushed down, Dogecoin is likely to retreat to the $0.095 support line and undergo a correction. Currently, Dogecoin stands at a watershed where buying interest aiming for a technical rebound clashes with selling pressure from long-term holders looking to exit.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*