"FOMC to Determine Direction"...Bitcoin at a crossroads: breaking $80,000 vs. falling to $66,000

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)/AI Generated Image

The results of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) regular meeting and the earnings announcements of major companies have emerged as critical variables that could change the technical trend of Bitcoin (BTC).

According to a report by the virtual asset specialized media CoinGeape on April 28 (local time), Jonathan Landin, senior market analyst at PrimeXBT, diagnosed that this FOMC decision will define Bitcoin's next major move. Currently, the market is experiencing high tension ahead of the release of macroeconomic data, including the preliminary first-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the March Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. In particular, the earnings announcements of giant tech companies such as Google, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft are expected to directly influence risk asset preference.

A positive sign is the improving liquidity environment. Landin analyzed that market conditions, such as liquidity growth turning positive and volatility compressing, have begun to align for the first time since the October 2025 peak. Liquidity can only act as a tailwind for the market when supported by growth. While it is uncertain whether this alignment will be maintained, Bitcoin's rebound above $79,000 last weekend did raise expectations for a return to a bull market.

However, macroeconomic uncertainties still carry the risk of price decline. If the unstable ceasefire between the US and Iran breaks, and oil prices soar to $115 per barrel, inflation could reignite. If the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintains a hawkish stance of holding rates at this meeting and resets the probability of rate cuts, it would act as a negative factor for Bitcoin's price. If any of the liquidity conditions break down, the downward trend that has continued since last October cannot be ruled out.

From a technical perspective, if Bitcoin successfully breaks the $79,000 area, it will enter a resistance zone between $80,000 and $85,000. However, analyst Landin advised caution, as trading volumes remain thin and a bearish divergence is forming in the Relative Strength Index (RSI). While the price is rising, the index is falling, approaching the resistance level. Veteran trader Peter Brandt expects Bitcoin to reach new highs in the short term but anticipates it will be difficult to reach $250,000 by the end of this year.

For Bitcoin to continue a significant upward trend, the FOMC's decision must act as a catalyst to stimulate risk asset preference. If it fails to break the $80,000 resistance, it will retest the $70,000 support level. After that, the low of $66,000 recorded at the end of March is expected to be the next point of interest. Market participants are closely watching whether the macroeconomic indicators to be released this week can lead to a long-term trend reversal for Bitcoin.

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