Will Bitcoin Break $100,000?... Hayes' Scenario

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), US Dollar (USD) ©

The prospect of Bitcoin surpassing $100,000 by the end of 2026 has re-emerged, drawing market attention to macroeconomic variables.

According to the crypto media outlet Finbold on April 28 (local time), Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, predicted that Bitcoin (BTC) is highly likely to exceed at least $100,000 and reach approximately $125,000 by the end of 2026. This level is close to the previous all-time high of $126,000.

Hayes attributed the recent market correction to credit contraction and consumption slowdown caused by the reduction of AI-related jobs. However, he explained that after the US-Iran conflict in February, the market sentiment shifted from 'AI slowdown concerns' to 'war inflation,' which acted as a factor for Bitcoin's strength relative to Nasdaq.

In particular, inflation occurring during wartime stimulates demand for hedging against the depreciation of fiat currency, positively impacting assets like Bitcoin. He also assessed that the impact of hawkish Federal Reserve policies would be limited, emphasizing that actual market liquidity could expand through other channels.

As a prime example, he pointed to the potential for approximately $1.3 trillion in lending capacity to open up due to eased bank regulations in April, particularly adjustments to the enhanced Supplementary Leverage Ratio (eSLR). He explained that if increased defense spending is added to this, the rise in liquidity could support risk assets across the board.

Hayes also presented a more aggressive scenario. In some statements, he mentioned the possibility of $145,000 by the end of 2026, and even up to $500,000, and in the long term, a range of $500,000 to $750,000. However, he added that such forecasts could be accompanied by high volatility as they heavily depend on central bank policies, liquidity expansion, and the global macroeconomic environment. Currently, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $76,343, down 1.6% on a daily basis but maintaining a 0.5% gain on a weekly basis.

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