Ripple breaks $1.40 amidst Strait of Hormuz tensions, where is the bottom?

▲ Iran, Strait of Hormuz, Bitcoin (BTC), XRP/AI-generated image ©

As geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalate and fear spreads throughout the virtual asset market, XRP (Ripple) has given up even the $1.40 support level, putting it at risk of a clear downtrend.

According to FXStreet, an investment media outlet, on April 28 (local time), XRP encountered resistance at its weekly high of $1.45 and has since been under strong selling pressure, falling to $1.38 as of Tuesday. Despite the ongoing truce between the United States and Iran, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Investor anxiety reached its peak as it was reported that U.S. President Donald Trump would not accept any proposal to open the strait without Iran dismantling its nuclear program. Consequently, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index plummeted from 47 the previous day to 33.

The contraction in investor sentiment is clearly evident in the fund flows of both institutional and retail investors. According to SoSoValue data, XRP spot exchange-traded funds saw no capital inflows on Monday, indicating extreme stagnation. Cumulative net inflows stood at $1.29 billion, with average net assets totaling $1.06 billion. Furthermore, open interest in the futures market recorded $2.57 billion, a significant decrease compared to last July's peak of $10.94 billion, clearly demonstrating a lack of bullish conviction among retail investors who are reluctant to open new positions.

Technical indicators also confirm an overall bearish structure. On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains around 47, below the 50 baseline, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has slipped back below the zero line, with the signal line turning downwards. This indicates that bullish momentum is being exhausted as every rally attempt is met with waiting selling pressure, and the current price is trapped below the Bollinger Bands' 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $1.40 and the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $1.41.

If downward pressure persists, the next major line of defense will be the lower Bollinger Band around $1.32, and if that breaks, deeper losses could occur within the daily downtrend. Conversely, for a bullish reversal, XRP must first break through the resistance levels of $1.40 and $1.41. After that, a challenging path is expected, requiring it to overcome heavy barriers successively: the upper Bollinger Band at $1.48, the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.53, and the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.75.

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