BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicted a strong rebound for Bitcoin at the Bitcoin 2026 conference. He analyzed that the recent decline of Bitcoin from its peak was due to job losses among knowledge workers and credit contraction caused by the spread of AI technology. However, since the outbreak of the US-Iran war in February, the market's focus has shifted from 'AI-driven recession' to 'wartime inflation,' leading Bitcoin to start outperforming Nasdaq again, he diagnosed. He specifically dismissed hawkish concerns about the next Fed Chair nominee, Warsh. He stated that the Fed's tightening would have a minimal impact on actual liquidity, while the easing of bank regulations (eSLR) implemented from April would create approximately $1.3 trillion in lending capacity. This analysis suggests that a massive amount of funds will be released, coupled with wartime defense demand, offsetting the economic contraction caused by AI. Hayes confirmed a liquidity bottom and set a target price of $125,000 for Bitcoin.
