Arthur Hayes "Bitcoin to reach $1 million, Great Depression to arrive by 2030" warns

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), market crash/ChatGPT generated image

Trillions of dollars in liquidity, triggered by the easing of US bank regulations, are poised to drive Bitcoin (BTC) to a record-breaking rally.

In an interview with the crypto-focused YouTube channel Altcoin Daily on April 27 (local time), Arthur Hayes explained the ripple effect that the revision of the US Enhanced Supplementary Leverage Ratio (ESLR) will have on the market. Hayes analyzed that the regulatory reform, which took effect on April 1, will ease the capital holding burden on large banks and generate enormous credit in the market. He emphasized, "This measure is a massive liquidity injection designed to allow banks to take on more risk and absorb government bonds."

This regulatory easing is interpreted as an intention to support a war economy system for national defense and resource acquisition. Instead of the government directly injecting funds, private banks are encouraged to increase lending to the real economy, which is expected to inject trillions of dollars of credit into the market. These changes will fuel the depreciation of currency value while simultaneously pushing up the prices of scarce assets like Bitcoin, acting as a powerful driving force. It is diagnosed that the expansion of funds occurring during the improvement of bank profitability will change the overall constitution of the market.

A negative real interest rate environment, where economic growth rates exceed government bond yields, provides optimal ground for Bitcoin's rise. Hayes predicted that Bitcoin has already bottomed out around $60,000 and will continue a gradual upward trend in the future. He stated, "Those without assets will suffer from inflation, but investors holding Bitcoin will benefit from the liquidity party." Hayes reaffirmed his previous conviction that the price of Bitcoin will reach $1 million by 2030.

Altcoin investments should focus on actual user numbers and revenue models rather than mere technological prowess. Hayes positively evaluated projects like Hyperliquid (HYPE) that increase token value through platform revenue. On the other hand, he analyzed that Ethereum (ETH) might record lower returns than Bitcoin due to less efficient capital inflow compared to network activity. It is a time to discern valuable assets with proven cash flow rather than indiscriminate meme coin investments.

Hayes concluded the interview with a warning that a severe economic downturn, on the scale of the Great Depression, lurks at the end of endless credit expansion. Between 2030 and 2035, a critical point will be reached where confidence in currency issuance collapses, and all asset markets could be severely impacted. Investors should utilize the current phase of liquidity expansion while also closely monitoring long-term risk factors such as political rhetoric and policy changes. The point at which the limits of credit supply become clear is expected to be a painful turning point for market participants.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*