Bitcoin, Short-Term Holder Realized Price on the Brink of Collapse... 'Sell' Bomb as Soon as it Reaches Breakeven?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC) crash/ChatGPT generated image

Bitcoin (BTC) is facing strong selling pressure, with a surge in inflows to exchanges, as it approaches the realized price, which is often called the breakeven point for short-term investors.

According to crypto media outlet Bitcoinist on April 28 (local time), the price of Bitcoin has dropped close to the realized price, which is the average purchase price for short-term holders. On-chain data analysis shows that as the Bitcoin price reached investors' breakeven point, a large volume of selling to avoid further losses is flooding into exchanges. Short-term holders typically refer to investors who have held Bitcoin for less than 155 days and are the group most sensitive to market volatility.

Currently, Bitcoin is engaged in a fierce battle around the $81,000 mark. This price range coincides with the area where many short-term investors aggressively accumulated holdings over the past few months. If the price falls below the realized price, short-term holders will transition into an unrealized loss state. Historical data shows that when the Bitcoin price falls below the short-term realized price, panic selling tends to occur, leading to deeper corrections.

Exchange inflow metrics clearly indicate the movement of selling forces. Over the past 24 hours, the amount of Bitcoin deposited into major exchanges has increased by more than 20% compared to usual. This suggests that investors are more inclined to recover their funds near the breakeven point rather than waiting for a market rebound. As the sell wall thickens, buying power for a price rebound appears to be dispersed.

Technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) are also warning of downward pressure. The dominant analysis suggests that there is still room for further decline before entering the oversold territory according to these indicators. Whale investors are maintaining a wait-and-see attitude, waiting for the capitulation of short-term holders to subside. As market liquidity shifts from a supply shock phase to a sell-dominated environment, the reliability of downside support levels is being tested.

Whether Bitcoin successfully defends the short-term realized price is the key to the market's direction this week. If the $80,000 support level breaks, there is a high risk of continued capitulation by short-term investors, leading to a sharp drop to the $75,000 level. There is also a view that the current selling pressure is an inevitable adjustment process for improving market health. Investors need to approach cautiously, closely monitoring changes in exchange inflows and the selling behavior of short-term holders.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*