Bitcoin Ahead of Fed Announcement, Will the Decline Repeat This Time?

▲ Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Bitcoin/ChatGPT generated image ©

Bitcoin is once again at the center of volatility ahead of this week's Federal Open Market Committee announcement.

According to crypto media outlet Finbold on April 27 (local time), there's a possibility of increased short-term volatility for Bitcoin (BTC) ahead of monetary policy announcements from five major central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed). Given the leverage-based rally in recent weeks, analysis suggests that downward pressure could emerge after the Federal Funds Rate and Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement are released.

Trading expert XBTkaz pointed out that Bitcoin's price has fallen every time the Fed's FOMC statement was announced since July last year, with the exception of last month. This meeting is scheduled for April 29, and the Fed is expected to keep the benchmark interest rate at 3.75%. Decentralized prediction market Polymarket reflected a 99.9% probability of an interest rate freeze, with the possibility of a 25bp cut remaining below 1%.

Technical trends are also increasing market caution. Bitcoin has been assessed to be trapped in a bearish market structure for several months, repeatedly forming lower highs and lower lows since February 2026. Technical analyst JDK Analysis analyzed that the recent price movement is forming a potential bear flag, defined as an ascending symmetrical channel.

Bitcoin recently surged above $79,400, but the analyst raised the possibility that a lower high was formed in this range. Consequently, there is a forecast that if selling pressure expands in the future, the lower end of the ascending channel could be tested again.

If the Fed freezes interest rates, there is also an observation that a 'sell the news' trend could emerge in the market. In particular, if Bitcoin has already risen before the FOMC announcement, it is possible that the majority of the market has already priced in the event, which could lead to increased profit-taking pressure in the days or weeks following the announcement.

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