Independent Safe Asset?..."XRP Price Follows Stock Market Signals"

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Contrary to the market's common belief that XRP is an independent safe asset, research results have been published indicating that it actually acts as a recipient passively receiving signals from traditional financial markets.

According to crypto-specialized media The Crypto Basic on April 28 (local time), researchers from Yildiz Technical University recently published a paper analyzing the reasons why virtual assets, including XRP, synchronize with traditional markets. This study, published in the April issue of the Journal of Risk and Financial Management, meticulously analyzed daily market data from 2018 to early 2026 using transfer entropy and independent component analysis techniques. The research revealed that virtual assets react sensitively to macroeconomic indicators such as stocks and bonds, rather than creating their own independent trends.

The researchers divided the financial market into seven sectors and tracked the flow of information. Stock indices of G10 countries and 10-year government bond yields act as key transmitters determining the market's direction. In contrast, virtual assets, including XRP, remain in the position of receivers, absorbing these signals and reflecting them in their prices. This suggests that virtual assets have not become a completely independent haven from the existing financial system.

In times of economic crisis, the market's power structure temporarily changes. When sudden variables like Black Swans occur, indicators of national default risk, such as 5-year credit default swaps, rapidly emerge as leading indicators that move stock and virtual asset prices simultaneously. This is because during a crisis, risk aversion sentiment operates simultaneously across all asset classes. During this period, the correlation between assets tends to become stronger than usual.

When the stock market declines, the impact on virtual asset portfolios is much more direct than previously expected. The researchers analyzed that as virtual assets mature, increased contact with mainstream financial institutions has deepened the synchronization phenomenon. Attempts to integrate virtual assets into the institutional framework, such as the launch of Bitcoin (BTC) spot ETFs, have resulted in virtual assets being incorporated as sub-elements of the macroeconomy rather than independent assets. From a long-term perspective, virtual assets remain firmly anchored to traditional stock and bond markets.

Despite efforts by the virtual asset market to build its own independent ecosystem, the influence of traditional markets is expected to continue for some time. Investors should note that changes in macroeconomic indicators precede virtual asset prices. This study suggests that portfolio diversification strategies using virtual assets may have limitations in crisis situations. Even if the market order is reshaped, the flow of information still originates from Wall Street.

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