US-Iran Second Negotiation's Direction Unclear... Couldn't Bridge Gaps on Hormuz and Nuclear Issues?

President Trump

As the direction of the second peace negotiation between the US and Iran, currently under truce, became uncertain again, it was revealed that the gap between the two sides remains significant.

US President Donald Trump announced on the 25th (local time) that he had canceled the trip of the US negotiating team, consisting of Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff and his son-in-law Jared Kushner, to Pakistan.

This announcement came after it was confirmed that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi, who was staying in Islamabad, the capital of mediating country Pakistan, left Pakistan on the same day.

Previously, the White House had announced the day before that the US negotiating team would depart for Pakistan that morning for face-to-face talks with Iran. This had briefly raised hopes for a resumption of negotiations, but it now appears that the second face-to-face negotiation is virtually impossible this weekend.

Following the breakdown of the first peace negotiation held in Pakistan on the 11th-12th and the failure of the second negotiation expected on the 21st, the cancellation of this weekend's talks has once again made the resumption of dialogue uncertain.

Iran has maintained from the outset that it had no plans for direct talks with the US in Pakistan.

Indeed, Minister Aragchi, who arrived in Pakistan the day before, met with Pakistani officials including Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to convey Iran's position on the peace settlement, then departed for Oman on the same day.

For the White House, which had publicly announced the possibility of face-to-face talks, this became a somewhat awkward situation.

A US official, who requested anonymity, told the Washington Post (WP) that, contrary to Iran's official stance of 'no direct talks,' they had received confirmation from the Iranian side that they would attend face-to-face talks, and that otherwise, the US negotiating team's trip to Pakistan would not have been scheduled.

President Trump also said in a media interview on the same day, "We're not going to fly 18 hours to talk about nothing."

This is interpreted to mean that the negotiating team will not be sent to Pakistan if no substantial progress in negotiations is expected.

Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi

Minister Aragchi stated on social media regarding the results of his visit to Pakistan, "We shared Iran's position on a viable framework for peace," adding, "It remains to be seen whether the US is truly serious about diplomacy," implying that the atmosphere for dialogue is not yet fully ripe.

This war of nerves shows that the two sides still have significant differences on key issues.

The Strait of Hormuz and Iran's nuclear program are cited as key issues where the two sides are in a tense standoff.

The US is escalating its maritime blockade to increase pressure on Iran, which is further raising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, a global oil shipping lane.

Despite US pressure, Iran has shown its determination to continue blocking the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated in a statement on the same day, "Controlling the Strait of Hormuz and keeping the US and White House supporters in the shadow of its deterrent effect is Iran's decisive strategy."

On the nuclear issue, the US is demanding limitations on Iran's uranium enrichment and the export of its stockpiles, while Iran is reportedly taking a cautious stance on this.

It is assessed that such disagreements will not be easily resolved in the short term.

The WP reported that Iran's peace-related proposals include Russia providing guarantees to deter further US attacks on Iran, and Iran and Oman jointly controlling the Strait of Hormuz.

However, President Trump is raising the level of pressure on Iran while also keeping the door open for dialogue, drawing attention to the possibility of future negotiations resuming.

President Trump said today, "We have all the cards, and they have no cards. If they want to talk, all they have to do is call."

This is interpreted as emphasizing the US's superior negotiating power through military operations and maritime blockade, while also indicating that the possibility of negotiations is not closed.

Furthermore, immediately after canceling the US negotiating team's trip to Pakistan, President Trump stated that he had received an improved proposal from Iran, suggesting that progress was being made behind the scenes.

Accordingly, it is suggested that the US and Iran may continue indirect negotiations through Pakistan for the time being to seek common ground.

In particular, with reports from Iranian state media that Minister Aragchi plans to visit Pakistan again after his Oman schedule and before heading to Russia, there are also observations that discussions for face-to-face negotiations could pick up pace again.