Bitcoin, Long Premium Collapse..."Everyone is Betting on a Decline"

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

Amidst the Bitcoin (BTC) market remaining in a sideways trading range, an analysis suggests that investor sentiment is leaning bearish, with short-selling positions continuously increasing in the derivatives market.

Crypto media outlet NewsBTC recently reported that despite Bitcoin's attempts to rise, a "contrarian betting" phenomenon is emerging where traders are actually increasing their short positions.

Key indicators include futures premium and funding rates. The short-term futures premium (7-day basis) has sharply contracted in just a few days, falling to a level where it has almost disappeared compared to the spot price. This implies that market participants are no longer paying a premium for leveraged long positions, indicating weakened expectations for a rise.

Funding rates also consistently remain in negative territory. This is not a temporary phenomenon but is interpreted as a signal that short-selling positions are steadily accumulating across the market. Indeed, analyst Axel Adler Jr. commented that "the market structure is rapidly shifting towards a bearish sentiment."

However, there is also a view that such bearish betting does not necessarily mean a decline will follow. Some analysts define the current situation as a "disbelief phase," explaining that a rally can continue precisely when most market participants do not believe in an uptrend. This aligns with the structure where the accumulation of short positions increases the likelihood of a short squeeze.

Ultimately, Bitcoin is currently in an asymmetric structure where the price is consolidating, but positions are skewed to one side. Whether the market will absorb bearish bets and turn upward, or if it will lead to an actual decline, the recovery of derivatives indicators will be a key variable.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*