Did observation equipment manipulate to raise temperature by 4 degrees? Suspicious weather betting on Polymarket

Paris Charles de Gaulle Airport

On the 6th, an 'unusual phenomenon' was detected at the temperature observation station at Paris Charles de Gaulle Airport in France, where the temperature soared by several degrees in just a few minutes.

On the 15th, a similar phenomenon was observed where the temperature soared and humidity sharply dropped.

At that moment, there were people quietly smiling on the online betting site Polymarket. They were gamblers who had placed large bets on an unexpected temperature rise in Paris.

According to the British daily Financial Times (FT) on the 23rd (local time), Météo-France (French meteorological service) recognized these abnormal situations and requested the police to investigate whether there was a possibility of equipment manipulation behind them.

Indeed, on the 6th, there was a flurry of settlements on Polymarket.

At that time, an account that had bet only $30 on the temperature in Paris reaching 21 degrees made a profit of $13,990.

The account in question was suddenly opened earlier this month and bets by predicting the day's maximum temperature based on Météo-France data.

This suspicious trend continued on the 15th.

At that time, there was a moment when the temperature surged from 18 degrees to 22 degrees in just a few minutes and then dropped again. Coincidentally, a gambler placed a bet of $119 at this time and made a profit of $21,000.

FT reported that the total betting volume on 'Paris highest temperature' on Polymarket on the 6th and 15th exceeded $500,000, which is more than double the daily average.

The first to notice these signs were members of 'Infoclimat', an online weather analysis group.

They track Météo-France data almost in real-time and reportedly caught abnormal trends on the 6th and 15th, respectively.

Sébastien Brana, the head of this group, said, "On the 6th, I thought it was a sensor problem, like a sudden temperature change at sunset just before a storm. But when the same phenomenon occurred again on the 15th, it became clear that there was another cause."

Accordingly, the French police, upon receiving a report from Météo-France, deployed their cybercrime investigation unit and launched an investigation, as reported by the British daily Guardian.

The Guardian also reported that one of the gamblers involved in the suspicious weather betting had previously placed bets on Seoul's temperature.

A Météo-France official explained that they reported it to the police based on "physical evidence found in the measuring equipment and analysis of sensor data."

This statement suggests the possibility that the measuring equipment may have been tampered with.

Polymarket, which originated in the United States, is a site where anonymous users bet money by predicting the probability of future events regarding political, social, and sports issues, and promotes itself as being able to avoid traceability based on cryptocurrency.

On this site, large sums of money are reportedly being bet, particularly on issues such as former US President Donald Trump or the military operations of the Israeli army.