Upbit Rides a Rollercoaster of 'Geopolitical Risk vs. Ceasefire Expectations,' What's Next?

Investor Sentiment Shaken by Middle East Risk, Relieved by Trump's 'Ceasefire' Remark... Upbit Bitcoin Recovers to 116 Million Won Level

▲ Bitcoin, XRP Rebound on Trump's Word... Is the Upbit Market Reviving?/AI Generated Image ©

The domestic virtual asset market, which had been falling alongside the New York stock market due to renewed military tensions in the Middle East, successfully achieved a short-term rebound thanks to U.S. President Donald Trump's remarks about a 'ceasefire extension.' However, trading volume is decreasing amidst a deepening wait-and-see attitude.

According to Upbit, the largest domestic virtual asset exchange, as of 6:45 AM on the 24th, Bitcoin, the market leader, is trading at 116,069,000 won, a slight increase of 0.14% from the previous day. It had sharply declined overnight due to Middle East anxieties, showing a strong bearish trend over a 24-hour period, but a strong buying trend in the last hour helped it recover losses and move into positive territory.

This dramatic 'V-shaped rebound' is a result of geopolitical fears quickly subsiding after President Trump announced last night that "the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon will be extended by three weeks." Investors who had been dumping risky assets due to concerns about the war escalating are interpreted to have returned to the market to buy at low prices following the news of the ceasefire extension.

Major altcoins are showing mixed movements by asset. Ethereum, the second-largest by market capitalization, recorded 3,462,000 won, a 1.62% decrease from the previous day, indicating it has not fully recovered from the shock. Solana is also trading at 127,900 won, down 0.70%. In contrast, XRP (Ripple) recorded 2,137 won, up 0.75%, joining Bitcoin in the rebound.

Upbit indices, which reflect the overall market sentiment, are also showing mixed trends. The Bitcoin Group Index rose by 0.14%, but the Upbit Composite Index (UBMI) fell by 0.01% to 11,759.61. In particular, the Altcoin Index (UBAI) decreased by 0.62%, indicating that the recovery of small and medium-sized coins is relatively slower.

Investors' extreme caution has led to a decrease in trading volume. According to data from CoinGecko, a global cryptocurrency market data aggregator, Upbit's 24-hour trading volume at this time decreased by 5.3% compared to the previous day. This is a result of a strong wait-and-see attitude, with investors reluctant to make premature entries as negative and positive news intersected within a short period.

Experts believe that the virtual asset market will continue to be more sensitive to 'headline news' than fundamentals for the time being. An official in the virtual asset industry stated, "While Middle East risks are shaking both the stock and coin markets simultaneously, the market shows immediate resilience whenever news of a diplomatic resolution, such as a ceasefire extension, emerges." He added, "However, with reduced trading volume, volatility can significantly expand even with small shocks, so conservative risk management is necessary until the direction is fully determined."

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*