"Now is the optimal short-selling zone"...Bitcoin, 'strongest short position in a year' warning issued

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

Although Bitcoin (BTC) appears to maintain a bullish trend, a sharp potential reversal to a downtrend has been simultaneously observed across various technical indicators, leading to an analysis that it is an 'optimal short-selling zone'.

According to cryptocurrency specialized media BeInCrypto, a market analyst has identified the current approximately $76,000 range as the most favorable short (short-selling) entry point over the past 12 months. This price level has repeatedly acted as a key resistance zone, preventing upward movements for the past 8 months, and the rationale provided is that strong downward reversals have occurred in the same range in the past.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $75,400, positioned at the top of an ascending parallel channel. This channel has been maintained for approximately 75 days, and the price has reached a critical juncture where it must determine its direction while closely adhering to the upper resistance line.

Notably, signs of decreasing volatility are simultaneously emerging. Indicators showing Bitcoin's volatility have fallen to cycle low levels, which is typically interpreted as a characteristic pattern appearing just before a strong directional movement.

Momentum indicators are also sending bearish signals. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered a compression phase, forming a triangular pattern with narrowing highs and lows, and a 'bearish divergence' was confirmed on the 4-hour chart, where the RSI declined while the price rose. This indicates a weakening of momentum within the uptrend.

Furthermore, the MACD has also made a bearish crossover below its signal line, showing early signs of a downtrend reversal. In the short term, whether the $74,500 support level is breached is a critical turning point; if this zone collapses, the ascending channel itself could break down, potentially intensifying downward pressure.

In the medium term, the $70,000-$64,000 range is suggested as the next support area. Conversely, in an upward movement, the $85,000-$87,000 range, corresponding to the Fibonacci 0.382 retracement level, is expected to act as a major resistance.

Ultimately, Bitcoin is currently in a state where the top of the ascending channel, a repeated resistance zone, and signs of weakening momentum all coincide. If this structure persists, a rapid decline scenario similar to the past could recur; conversely, if these resistance levels are broken, it could be a turning point that significantly alters the market structure itself, according to the analysis.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*