XRP: Price Can't Rise, Yet Supply is Bottoming Out... What's the Real Reason Whales Locked Up Exchange Wallets?

▲ XRP

The XRP market is showing an unusual phenomenon where, despite a downtrend in price, exchange supply is bottoming out, signaling explosive volatility due to a strong supply shock.

According to crypto media outlet NewsBTC on April 10 (local time), the XRP price has recently shown weakness, falling 16% from its late March high, but on-chain indicators are moving in the opposite direction. An analysis of the exchange supply structure tracked by on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant revealed a continuous outflow of XRP from exchanges over the past few months. Specifically, Binance, the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange, saw its cumulative XRP net inflow deficit widen from $10.4 billion in mid-August 2025 to its current $11.23 billion deficit. This means that an additional $830 million worth of XRP has left exchanges recently, and these outflowed coins are remaining in private wallets without returning.

The dwindling available supply on exchanges directly conflicts with the ongoing price weakness. The phenomenon of a thinning supply pool while the price drops by 16% signals that the market is experiencing two conflicting realities simultaneously. If supply contraction continues, it will inevitably lead to one of two outcomes: either the market enters a phase where prices react sensitively even to small demand, or, conversely, price weakness persists, causing sellers to deposit their holdings back onto exchanges, thereby increasing circulating supply. Experts diagnose the current supply situation as a structure that could trigger a sharp rise if new demand enters the market.

Derivatives data shows a cautious attitude among market participants amidst this supply-demand imbalance. XRP open interest on Binance has stagnated slightly above $200 million since mid-February 2026. While speculative forces exist in the market, aggressive and directional leveraged investments, which were observed before past rapid price changes, have not yet been seen. This indicates that market participants are maintaining an extremely cautious stance between the potential positive catalyst of supply shortage and the reality of price weakness.

The current abnormal equilibrium, characterized by simultaneously thinning supply and a lack of leverage, has reached a critical point. The supply shortage is expected to either maximize price sensitivity to new demand or, conversely, continued price weakness will draw sellers back to exchanges, restoring the circulating supply. The media reported that with XRP volume having left exchanges reaching historical levels, the market is closely watching for the moment when the price downtrend stops and the supply shortage drives prices up.

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