Bitcoin breaks 5-month decline, will it replicate past 200% surge?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC) ©Coinreaders

Market attention is focused on whether Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency that has finally broken the chain of a terrible losing streak of five consecutive months of decline, can replicate the glory of its past 200% surge. However, the heavy macroeconomic environment of sticky inflation and geopolitical risks from the Middle East are expected to be key variables determining the extent of the upward rally.

According to investment media The Motley Fool on April 10 (local time), Bitcoin (BTC) dramatically closed up 1.8% on the last day of March, halting its long 5-month decline that began in October last year. Bitcoin struggled, falling approximately 45% from its all-time high of $126,000 recorded in October 2025. However, it narrowly avoided the dishonor of a six-month consecutive decline, which has only happened once in its history.

The reason the market is paying attention to this rebound is due to a strong sense of déjà vu from the past. Immediately after the bear market from August 2018 to January 2019, which was the only period in Bitcoin's history to record a six-month consecutive decline, Bitcoin demonstrated formidable resilience, surging over 200% from around $3,400 to above $13,000 in a short period from February to June 2019. Although the current decline stopped at five months, there is growing anticipation that the pattern of an explosive rally following an extreme test of investors' patience could be replicated once again.

However, the current macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop is distinctly different from the calm market conditions of 2018. Oil prices continue to soar due to the aftermath of the war with Iran, and the direction of temporary truce negotiations remains shrouded in uncertainty. Furthermore, with inflationary pressures exacerbated by rising energy prices, the Federal Reserve's path to interest rate cuts, which would be favorable for risk assets like virtual assets, has become even more opaque.

Nevertheless, Bitcoin continues to show remarkable resilience amidst this extreme chaos and uncertainty. It has firmly maintained a price range between $65,000 and $73,000 throughout the Iran conflict, and even demonstrated the strength to temporarily outperform traditional stock market returns amidst surging international oil prices.

The media diagnosed that cautious optimism is advantageous for those planning long-term investments of five years or more, despite short-term market uncertainties. Wars and the resulting economic turmoil eventually come to an end, and by consistently accumulating Bitcoin as part of a diversified investment portfolio, excellent returns can be achieved when a future bull market arrives, the article advised.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*