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As geopolitical risks from the Middle East eased further with news of progress in ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Lebanon, the New York stock market continued its strong performance. Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency, comfortably surpassed $72,000, and major virtual assets such as XRP (Ripple) also showed an upward trend, raising expectations for entry into a full-fledged bull market.
According to CoinMarketCap, a cryptocurrency market aggregation site, on April 10 (local time), Bitcoin is trading at $72,319.89, up 1.05% from 24 hours ago, robustly driving the market's rally. Ethereum (ETH), the second largest by market capitalization, is taking a brief pause, down 0.21% to $2,212.73, but maintains a solid weekly gain of 7.49%. XRP is also up 0.29% at $1.35, and Solana (SOL) is trading down 0.93% at $84.26, showing a mixed but overall bullish sentiment among major coins. The total virtual asset market capitalization increased by 1.08% to $2.45 trillion, and the Fear & Greed Index points to a neutral stage at 47.
The main reason the virtual asset market is back on an upward trajectory is the recovery of risk asset preference sentiment due to the favorable developments in the Middle East. Following the agreement between the US and Iran for a two-week temporary ceasefire, Israel, which was considered the biggest obstacle to peace, abruptly ordered the start of negotiations with the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah. Under US President Donald Trump's request for restraint, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu directly expressed his willingness to negotiate, strongly stimulating buying sentiment. Buoyed by this sense of relief, the three major stock indices on the New York Stock Exchange – the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq Composite Index – all closed higher overnight. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, known as the fear index, plummeted 7.37% to 19.49, creating a positive macroeconomic environment.
However, the potential for market volatility remains alive as macroeconomic indicators show mixed results. The core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for February, released by the U.S. Department of Commerce, rose 0.4% month-over-month, meeting market expectations, but revealed a hot inflation level exceeding 4% on an annualized basis. Conversely, the final estimate for the U.S. GDP in the fourth quarter increased by only 0.5% quarter-over-quarter, confirming a significant slowdown in economic growth. Sticky inflation and decelerated growth put significant pressure on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, but the probability of a 25bp interest rate cut by the end of December this year has slightly increased to 25%, and strong performance from large tech stocks like Amazon and Meta is largely offsetting investor anxiety.
Market experts analyze that the short-term direction of the cryptocurrency market, including Bitcoin, depends on the actual progress of peace negotiations between Israel and Lebanon. Although a ceasefire is being discussed outwardly, doubts about its sincerity remain within Israel, with some suggesting strong military action. If the Middle East conflict is resolved smoothly and geopolitical risks completely recede, Bitcoin is highly likely to stage an additional rally towards its all-time high based on robust liquidity. However, if negotiations break down or concerns about supply shocks due to a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz resurface, a strong corrective market could ensue, requiring a cautious investment strategy that pays close attention to news headlines for the time being.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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