to leave a comment.
▲ US Midterm Elections, Bitcoin (BTC)/AI Generated Image
On the day of the US midterm elections, Bitcoin (BTC) faces a test of whether it can hold the $75,000 support level.
According to the cryptocurrency media outlet Coingape on November 3 (local time), Bitcoin shows a bearish trend among traders assessing political risks ahead of the election. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization decreased by 3.4% in 24 hours to approximately $2.58 trillion. Bitcoin has fallen by 4% over the past week, indicating a cooling of risk appetite. US voters will decide congressional control today. The outcome can affect legislation, government spending, regulation, and market expectations, impacting stocks, bonds, the dollar, and cryptocurrencies. Several scenarios are being considered by the market. If Republicans take both chambers, they could maintain the administration's agenda. If Democrats take even one side, passing policy changes could become difficult, and congressional oversight could increase. The results could also affect cryptocurrency regulation.
Past midterm election cycles provide comparative data, but three elections are not enough to make reliable predictions. In 2014, Bitcoin fell by about 50% over 71 days and then rose by 24.5% the following year. In 2018, it fell by 50% over 38 days, then rose by 44.9% over the next year. In 2022, it fell by 25% over 13 days and recovered by 92.3% over the next year. This trend suggests that post-election slumps have sometimes been precursors to bullish movements. However, this does not mean the same movement will occur in 2026. Liquidity, interest rates, regulation, and institutional demand continue to drive prices.
The technical structure is weak. Bitcoin trades below its major moving averages. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 44, indicating weak momentum and approaching the oversold territory. The daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is approximately -1,359.62, below the signal line of -884.2, and the histogram is negative around -475.43, indicating dominant bearish momentum. Traders are watching for support around $76,000. If this line is decisively broken, the psychological support level of $75,000 comes into focus. A break below $75,000 could increase further selling pressure and downside risk. On the upside, resistance around $77,500 needs to be reclaimed, and surpassing that opens up $78,000. Election headlines may cause volatility, but the outcome itself does not determine the direction.
ETF outflows also add pressure. On November 2, the total net outflow from US Bitcoin spot ETFs was approximately $398.6 million, marking two consecutive days of outflows. BlackRock's (BLK) IBIT saw approximately $405.3 million withdrawn. The total net asset value of the funds is about $98.1 billion, and the cumulative net inflow since launch is about $56.6 billion. These outflows indicate a slowdown in institutional demand ahead of the vote, but the total net inflow remains positive.
[Article Summary]
-On the day of the midterm elections, Bitcoin fell 4% over the week, and the total market cap decreased by 3.4% in 24 hours. After a slump following the past three midterm elections, the one-year returns were 24.5%, 44.9%, and 92.3%.
-RSI is 44, MACD is -1,359.62, indicating bearishness. Support levels are $76,000 and the psychological $75,000, while resistance levels are $77,500 and $78,000.
-On November 2, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $398.6 million, with IBIT accounting for $405.3 million, but cumulative net inflow remains $56.6 billion.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
Newsletter
Get key news delivered to your email every morning
to leave a comment.