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Ethereum (ETH) price decline chart image © CoinReaders
Ethereum (ETH) has slipped just below its 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is considered a turning point for its long-term trend. On a day when the Nasdaq Composite Index and Bitcoin (BTC) rose, only Ethereum fell, causing the Ethereum/Bitcoin ratio to drop to 0.0288, nearing a multi-year low. This coincided with ETF fund outflows, the largest corporate buyer nearing its purchase limit, and sales by the Ethereum Foundation, with staking volume being the only absorber of selling pressure.
According to investment media TradingNews on October 27 (local time), Ethereum traded at $2,312, down 1.49% from the previous day's closing price. The 200-day EMA is $2,317.83, a line that separates correction from long-term trend breakdown. On the same day, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.33% intraday, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 3%, and Bitcoin also rose 0.37% to $80,427. The media assessed the 1.5% decline on a day when the market's largest assets were flat and risk assets were rising not as mere noise, but as a sign of weakening relative strength.
Ethereum rose from $1,850 in August to the $2,700-$2,750 range, then met resistance at $2,730, and its decline accelerated in October. The current price is 14.2% lower than a month ago ($2,692.84) and 43.9% lower than a year ago. On October 26, it failed to hold above $2,360 and was pushed back to around $2,300, and the high of October 27 ($2,343.88) also fell short of the previous day's attempt. On the daily chart, trading volume increased with each decline, and no candles indicating a rebound appeared.
Fund flows are also in the same direction. On October 26, $88.58 million was net outflowed from US spot Ethereum ETFs, with BlackRock iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) alone seeing an outflow of $104.71 million (approximately KRW 140.2 billion). On the same day, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $110.30 million (approximately KRW 147.7 billion), all of which went into BlackRock IBIT. This means that within the same asset manager, Ethereum funds flowed out while Bitcoin funds flowed in. Over 30 days until October 22, Ethereum ETFs experienced a net outflow of $917 million (approximately KRW 1.2279 trillion), with a pattern of smaller inflows being erased by larger outflows repeating.
BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR), the largest pillar of corporate demand, is also nearing its limit. The company announced on October 26 that it held 6,051,933 Ethereum (4.95% of circulating supply), with a valuation of $14.3 billion (approximately KRW 19.1477 trillion) as of October 25. Weekly purchases decreased from 15,112 units in the week ending October 4 to 10,452 units in the week ending October 25. The chairman confirmed a 'hard cap' on October 7 at TOKEN2049, stating that purchases would stop once 5% of the circulating supply was reached. The remaining quantity is 53,000 units, which at the current rate would reach the limit within 5 weeks.
Funds are already shifting to treasury stock. BitMine resumed buying its own shares after 10 weeks, purchasing 2.04 million shares at an average of $22.48 in the previous week. After the limit was confirmed, BMNR stock price fell by 7%. The Ethereum Foundation additionally sold 2,785 Ethereum on October 26, marking its second sale in two weeks.
The force supporting the price is the immobility of the supply. Staked Ethereum, which is locked in the network like a fixed deposit to receive rewards, has reached an all-time high of 43.8 million ETH, accounting for 35.9% of the circulating supply. The pending entry volume also amounts to 1.46 million ETH. The media pointed out that Ethereum was the weakest among major assets during a week when AI-related stocks were drawing in risk capital and the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintained its benchmark interest rate around 4%.
TradingNews predicted that the path towards $2,200 is easiest for Ethereum until it reclaims $2,360 on a daily closing basis. The test of $2,300 is also the culmination of a six-week decline. If net inflows exceeding $50 million across several funds continue for a few days, it would be read as a sign that the Bitcoin concentration has ended. Conversely, if another week of net outflows exceeding $200 million (approximately KRW 267.8 billion) occurs, $2,200 will be tested.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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