Ripple (XRP) tests $1.25 support line…caution if it breaks, $1.20 in sight

Ripple (XRP) only rose by 0.02% in a day, maintaining a stagnant flow around the $1.25 level. Amid concerns about risk aversion sentiment following the Binance hack and the burden of escrow release, a battle continued around the $1.25 support line. The market warns that if XRP holds $1.25, it could rebound to around $1.29, where the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is located, but if it breaks, it could fall to $1.20.

According to CoinMarketCap, a cryptocurrency market aggregation site, as of November 1 (KST), Ripple traded at $1.25, up 0.02% in the last 24 hours. Its market capitalization rank is 5th. On the domestic exchange Upbit, it traded at 1,674 KRW (24 hours -0.65%), showing a slight decline contrary to the dollar price. Previously, CoinMarketCap AI analysis pointed out that Ripple recorded a 0.66% decline to $1.25 on the same day, underperforming Bitcoin, which saw a slight increase.

The risk aversion sentiment that spread after the Binance hack weighed on the price. According to CoinMarketCap AI analysis, $643 million flowed out of US spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) on October 30, and small-scale redemptions were also observed in Ripple ETFs. In addition, long positions exceeding $1.29 billion were forcibly liquidated across the cryptocurrency market, increasing selling pressure. It is analyzed that funds flowed out of risk assets like Ripple as both institutional and individual investor sentiment contracted.

Caution regarding the release of escrowed volume also burdened investor sentiment. 1 billion XRP was scheduled to be released from Ripple's escrow on November 1, which is a regular monthly net increase of 200-400 million XRP. However, it is pointed out that the 24-hour trading volume decreased by 71.3% at the time of analysis, indicating thin liquidity, which could amplify selling pressure. The actual net selling volume of Ripple after the release is key, and the fact that most of the volume is typically locked up again is considered a variable.

In the short term, whether the $1.25 support holds is a key variable. The $1.25 level coincides with the 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement level, and defending it could lead to an attempt to rebound to around $1.29. Conversely, if $1.25 breaks, there is a risk of further decline to $1.20. If the daily closing price falls below $1.20, it could drop to around the August low of $0.9800. To turn bullish, it must recover $1.29, where the 200-day SMA is located.

Over the next 24-48 hours, the defense of the $1.25 support line is expected to determine the short-term direction. The analysis suggests that whether the price maintains the support zone until the weekly close after the escrow release is a key observation point. The consistent resumption of ETF fund inflows is also mentioned as a signal to gauge the recovery of institutional investor sentiment.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*