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▲ Upbit Coin Market/AI-generated image ©
The global virtual asset market rebounded across the board as expectations for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates were reignited due to the US employment shock in September. However, at Upbit, the largest domestic exchange, a strong cautious sentiment prevails, with trading volume still lingering at the bottom, around 1 trillion won, except for some short-term soaring assets.
According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on October 2 (local time), non-farm payrolls in September increased by only 29,000, falling significantly short of the market's expectation of 89,000. The unemployment rate also exceeded the forecast (4.1%) at 4.2%. The sharp drop in employment and rise in unemployment not only fueled concerns about an economic slowdown in the US but also acted as a macro catalyst, further increasing the likelihood of the Fed's dovish monetary policy, i.e., interest rate cuts.
As macro tailwinds entered the market, the cryptocurrency market reacted immediately. As of 9:34 PM on October 2, Bitcoin (BTC) in Upbit's KRW market was trading at 117,149,000 won, up 1.29% from the previous day, and surged to 117,646,000 won during intraday trading. Major global exchanges such as Coinbase and Bitfinex also saw prices exceed the $86,000 mark, supporting strength in dollar terms. The Upbit Composite Index (UBAI) rose by 1.05% to 11,901.73, and the Altcoin Index (UAI) rose by 1.25% to 3,330.16, respectively, indicating a broad inflow of buying interest across the market.
In the altcoin sector, while a clear selective rotation unfolded, market interest in Ripple (XRP) remained at an unrivaled level. XRP (Ripple) rose by 2.26% to 2,084 won, recording a 24-hour trading volume of 185.7 billion won, surpassing Bitcoin (156.7 billion won) to firmly secure the top spot in KRW market trading volume. In Upbit Data Lab's 24-hour trading volume share, Ripple also took first place with 10.22%, outperforming Bitcoin (8.68%), The Sandbox (7.48%), Ethereum (5.56%), and Dolphin (4.46%). Meanwhile, the short-term liquidity shift towards specific themes and individual altcoins also intensified, with Dolphin (POD/KRW) surging by 75.53% and The Sandbox (SAND/KRW) jumping by 53.26% on the day.
However, looking beyond the superficial price rebound, the structural stagnation of the domestic market is still ongoing. Upbit's total 24-hour trading volume slightly increased by 1.76% from the previous day to 1.82 trillion won, with the day's trading volume reaching only 1.3 trillion won. Compared to the beginning of the year when trading volumes reached 4-12 trillion won, the market's total liquidity has not escaped the bottom, and this rebound is more akin to a typical 'rotational market' where liquidity shifts to specific assets within a limited pool, rather than a full-scale inflow of new funds.
This week, the virtual asset market is expected to receive short-term downside support from interest rate cut expectations following the slowdown in US employment figures. However, with the KRW/USD exchange rate falling by 0.98% to 1,346.20 won, reducing the attractiveness of exchange rate arbitrage, and if the structural stagnation of domestic trading volume is not resolved, it is possible that Bitcoin's further upward momentum, having re-entered the 117 million won level, could be dampened by encountering resistance at higher price levels.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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