"55% of long-term whales have taken profits and exited"...Bitcoin (BTC), hidden sell-off bomb warning

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently continuing its rebound, but an on-chain analysis suggests that it remains in an initial speculative phase due to the lack of accompanying trading volume. With the inflow into Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) sharply slowing down and a massive sell wall at around $85,000, it is urgent for trading volume to genuinely recover for a full-fledged trend reversal upwards.

According to Benzinga, a US financial media outlet, on October 1st (local time), on-chain analytics firm Glassnode stated in its weekly report that Bitcoin's daily trading volume, combining spot exchanges and ETFs, remained at approximately $6.4 billion, the lowest level since the launch of spot ETFs. Glassnode diagnosed the current rebound phase as “initial and speculative,” noting that broad spot trading demand has not yet entered the market. The daily net inflow into US Bitcoin spot ETFs, which reached $1 billion consecutively on September 21st and 22nd, sharply dropped to $24 million as of September 28th.

A resistance line preventing short-term price increases has also become clear. According to the Binance spot order book, a massive sell order wall has formed between $85,000 and $85,500, and its size has tripled since it was first identified on September 24th. The primary entities realizing profits have also shifted from short-term traders to long-term holders. The proportion of realized profits from long-term holders, who have held coins for more than 155 days, surged from 34% to 55%, indicating continued profit-taking by whales taking advantage of the price increase.

The defense of the downside support line is also a key observation point. The realized cost basis for short-term holders (less than 155 days) is $73,300, and the True Market Mean, which estimates the average purchase price of active investors, is at $77,200. The current price remains about 8% above the True Market Mean, maintaining upward momentum, but the explanation states that if the daily closing price falls below $77,200, the rebound trend could be invalidated.

Experts analyzed that Bitcoin can only evolve into a full-fledged rally with broad market support if it defends the $77,200 support line and trading volume consistently increases. Breaking through the $85,500 sell wall and the revival of spot ETF demand are considered key indicators that will determine the success or failure of this upward wave.

[Article Key Summary]

-Glassnode diagnosed the current Bitcoin rebound as initial and speculative, with daily trading volume remaining at a bottom of $6.4 billion.

-The $85,000 sell wall on Binance's order book has tripled, and the proportion of long-term holders taking profits has surged to 55%.

-A true major rally is expected to expand only if the $77,200 support line is defended and trading volume significantly recovers.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. This content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*