Bitcoin's End-of-Quarter Pause Ends... BlackRock's IBIT Expected to Settle at $52 Amid October Institutional Buying

▲ BlackRock Bitcoin/ChatGPT generated image ©

BlackRock's spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF), which attracted a massive $6.34 billion in the third quarter alone, turning its year-to-date cumulative flow positive in one fell swoop, is now targeting the $52 mark. While surging US Treasury yields, which hit their highest since 2002, are slowing daily fund inflows and capping short-term gains, strong institutional buying at around the $82,000 level is providing a solid floor, setting the stage for further upside.

According to investment media TradingNews on October 1 (local time), BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) traded at $47.70 in early US market opening, up 0.76% from the previous day. This represents a 45% rebound from its 52-week low of $32.84 recorded in June. The US Bitcoin (BTC) spot ETF market recorded a total net inflow of $6.34 billion in the third quarter, completely recouping the $5 billion net outflow deficit incurred in the second quarter. As a result, the annual cumulative net inflow for 2026 successfully turned positive at $934 million, and the total net asset value of the entire fund reached $108.42 billion, accounting for 6.43% of Bitcoin's total market capitalization.

IBIT, boasting the largest single fund size, demonstrates unparalleled market dominance. As of September 29, IBIT's net asset size reached $66.88 billion, holding over 779,839 BTC, capturing 3.88% of the total circulating supply. In the week from September 21 to 25, a record-breaking $2.386 billion flowed into the entire ETF market in just five days, with IBIT alone absorbing $1.158 billion, or 48.5% of the total. Notably, since its launch in January 2024, IBIT's cumulative net inflow has been $61.16 billion, single-handedly absorbing the continuous outflows due to Grayscale's high fees and driving the growth of the entire industry.

However, the headwind of a tightening macroeconomic environment is hindering short-term fund inflows. The US 10-year Treasury yield surged to 5.34%, marking its highest level since 2002, and the risk-free real interest rate, considering core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation, exceeded 2.2%, increasing the investment burden on non-interest-bearing virtual assets. Indeed, while $2.39 billion flowed in over a week, Bitcoin's price actually fell by 2.3% due to profit-taking by other long-term holders, and daily inflows also sharply declined from $999 million on September 21 to $134.5 million on September 25. Subsequently, on September 30, a net outflow of $148.7 million, primarily from Fidelity (FBTC), occurred due to end-of-quarter portfolio rebalancing, ending a nine-consecutive-trading-day streak of inflows.

From a technical analysis perspective, IBIT mirrors Bitcoin's sideways movement. The current price is confined to a short-term range between $47.17 and $48.46, which corresponds to Bitcoin's range of $83,200 to $85,500. The downside support levels are at $46.80 and $46.30, which aligns with Bitcoin's 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), with $45.40, corresponding to a breakdown below $80,000, analyzed as the final defense line. Conversely, if the upper resistance level of $48.46 is broken upwards, a technical rebound channel opens up to $51.00, corresponding to Bitcoin at $90,000, via $49.60, which represents the September high.

Experts presented a base scenario with a 55% probability that IBIT will reach $52 by the end of October, assuming Treasury yields remain stable between 5.15% and 5.35% and net inflows of $2-3 billion continue throughout October. If bond yields fall below 5.10% due to slowing employment figures, leading to a resumption of large daily inflows exceeding $300 million, the probability of a bullish scenario with a surge to $54-56 is 20%. Conversely, the probability of a bearish scenario, where it drops to $44.50 due to an overheated job market and continuous net outflows, is 25%. Accordingly, experts advise buying in the $46.80-$47.70 range, setting a stop-loss at $45.40, and incrementally increasing holdings upon confirmation of IBIT settling above $48.46 on a daily chart.

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