Bitcoin dropped 34% from its peak, is now the opportunity?…"It hit bottom and is going to $100,000"

▲ Bitcoin (BTC) ©Coinreaders

Although Bitcoin (BTC) fell 34% from its all-time high of $126,000 in October last year, based on its strong recovery over the past two months, it is projected to have already passed its bottom, recover to $100,000 by year-end, and potentially set a new all-time high in 2027. In particular, reclaiming the 365-day Moving Average is drawing attention as a signal of a new bull cycle.

According to investment media outlet The Motley Fool on September 30 (local time), Bitcoin rebounded to around $85,000 after falling below $60,000 in July. The price at the time of writing was $83,650, which is still 34% lower than the all-time high of $126,000 recorded in October last year. Dominic Basulto of The Motley Fool suggested that, based on the reversal seen in the past two months, BTC could recover to $100,000 by the end of this year and, if the upward momentum continues, could set a new all-time high in 2027.

The core basis of the outlook is Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle. Basulto explained that Bitcoin typically experiences three strong years, followed by a significant correction in the fourth year, before entering a new upward cycle. If this cycle remains valid, an analysis suggests that a bottom may have already formed below $60,000 in July. With approximately one year having passed since the $126,000 peak in October last year, the downtrend is expected to conclude, and further upward momentum could form in 2028, following the rise in 2027 and the next Bitcoin Halving.

However, the difficulty in finding clear immediate upward catalysts remains a variable. The outlet pointed out that the failure of the CLARITY Act, rising interest rates, and uncertainty surrounding the U.S. economy continue to burden the cryptocurrency market. Conversely, if Bitcoin shows signs of Decoupling from the stock market, macroeconomic uncertainty could potentially stimulate new demand. It explained that if concerns about the U.S.'s $40 trillion debt and dollar debasement grow, investors might engage in a so-called Debasement Trade, moving from dollar-denominated assets to Bitcoin, gold, and other alternatives.

Technical indicators were also presented as grounds supporting the rebound theory. Bitcoin recently reclaimed its 365-day moving average, located at $80,500. Basulto explained that historically, reclaiming this indicator has served as a signal marking the beginning of a new Bitcoin bull market cycle. Market Sentiment has also shifted, with investors' bullish sentiment towards cryptocurrencies rising to its highest level since December 2024.

Basulto believes that bullish trends currently outweigh bearish ones in the market and suggested that BTC could reach $100,000 by the end of this year. He further predicted that it could surpass the previous all-time high of $126,000 in 2027. However, this outlook is based on the premise that Bitcoin's four-year cycle continues to operate and recent recovery momentum is sustained, while rising interest rates and U.S. economic uncertainty remain variables that could restrict the upward trend.

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