Dogecoin (DOGE) $0.10 Rebound 'Temporary'?..."Eventually Plummet to $0.05" Warning

▲ Dogecoin (DOGE), bear market/AI-generated image ©

Although Dogecoin (DOGE) recently reclaimed the $0.10 mark, a pessimistic outlook suggests that the rebound may not last long and could plummet to $0.05 by 2027. The analysis points to the difficulty in creating sustained demand due to a lack of real-world use, combined with an unlimited supply structure that could put long-term pressure on the price.

According to the investment media The Motley Fool on September 30 (local time), Dogecoin recently recovered to the $0.10 level last week after falling below $0.07 for the first time since 2023. However, it is still 87% lower compared to its all-time high of $0.73 recorded in 2021. Anthony Di Pizio of The Motley Fool predicted that DOGE could fall to $0.05 by 2027, citing its continuously increasing supply in a situation where real-world use expansion is limited.

The first problem pointed out is real-world use demand. Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) are used as payment methods for running decentralized applications on their respective blockchains, and XRP acts as a bridge currency in Ripple Payments. Bitcoin (BTC) is valued as a store of value based on its scarcity, with its supply limited to 21 million units. In contrast, only 2,346 businesses worldwide accept DOGE as a payment method, according to Cryptwerk, and a significant portion of them are cryptocurrency and internet-related service providers.

The supply structure was also cited as a weakness. While Bitcoin's total issuance is limited to 21 million units, DOGE has no maximum supply limit. Although a maximum of 5 billion DOGE can be mined annually, there is no end date for issuance, meaning the circulating supply can continue to increase. As of September 26, the circulating supply of DOGE was 156.1 billion units, and if an additional 5 billion units are added in 2027, the supply would increase by approximately 3%.

Di Pizio calculated that if only the dilution effect from increased supply is applied, the DOGE price, currently around $0.10, could fall to approximately $0.097 by the end of 2027. However, he argued that the decline could be even greater if Dogecoin lacks clear means to create real value and investor sentiment continues to worsen. He particularly noted that the recent price drop to $0.068 suggests that $0.05 is not an unrealistic target.

Long-term supply growth was also presented as a basis for the $0.05 forecast. Assuming 5 billion DOGE are newly circulated each year, the supply would approximately double over the next 31 years. Di Pizio argued that even if it doesn't reach $0.05 by 2027, it is highly likely that the current price of $0.10 will halve in the long term. However, this analysis is based on the author's prediction that Dogecoin's real-world use expansion will be limited and that value dilution due to increased supply will be reflected in the price.

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