U.S. Treasury Yields Highest in 19 Years…Bitcoin Stops Again Before $85,000

▲ Bitcoin Crash ©CoinReaders

Bitcoin (BTC) has once again failed to break past $85,000 and is consolidating around $83,000. While U.S. Treasury yields have surged to a 19-year high, putting pressure on the upward trend, an analysis suggests that the market structure itself is relatively healthy, with open interest in the derivatives market plummeting by 49,028 BTC in a week, reducing the risk of a large-scale long squeeze.

According to investment media FXStreet on September 30 (local time), Bitcoin consolidated around $83,000 on Wednesday after failing to close above the key resistance level of $85,000 earlier this week. U.S. 5-year Treasury yields exceeded 5%, and 10-year yields surpassed 5.2%, both reaching their highest levels in 19 years. The analysis suggests that the surge in Treasury yields is stimulating risk aversion, thereby limiting further upside for BTC.

Caution ahead of macroeconomic indicators is also dampening buying sentiment. The market is closely watching Wednesday's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, and the final Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, Thursday's Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), and Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP). Remarks from key Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) officials are also considered variables for gauging future monetary policy paths and dollar movements.

On the other hand, the deleveraging in the derivatives market proceeded relatively orderly. According to K33 Research, open interest (OI) for Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and perpetual futures decreased by 49,028 BTC over the past seven days, marking the largest weekly decline since October 2025. Despite the significant deleveraging, the BTC price did not plummet, and spot trading volume remained below the annual average even with price increases, indicating limited selling pressure. With leverage significantly reduced, the risk of a long squeeze that could trigger forced liquidations has also decreased.

Total open interest is approaching 400,000 BTC. This level has only appeared twice in the last two years: from March 9 to April 10, 2025, and from February 15 to March 15, 2026. In both periods, Bitcoin saw a strong rally after a period of consolidation, followed by investors returning to the market. However, K33 Research explained that it is difficult to definitively determine the price direction based solely on past orderly deleveraging, noting that low volatility tended to persist while investors waited on the sidelines.

Technically, Bitcoin traded at $83,241 on Wednesday, staying above its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), maintaining a short-term bullish structure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 59, placing it in the neutral-to-bullish zone, but the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has dipped slightly into negative territory, indicating weakening upward pressure. On the upside, $85,000 is a key resistance level, and if it declines, the 50-day EMA at $77,792 is presented as the primary support. Subsequently, the 200-day EMA at $74,434 and the 100-day EMA at $74,303 are major defense zones, and in a deeper correction, $66,500 and $62,300 are mentioned as structural support levels.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*